Economic Modern Family January Trend Trade is Here!

January 19, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


TradeStation, Think or Swim, and Stockcharts are 3 platforms that feature our January Calendar Range or Trend Trade. 

MarketGauge.com also has a membership page which gives access to the Calendar Range special scan of the sector ETFs and stocks in the “Dashboard” section.  

For your weekend Daily, I am giving you a peek at the Economic Modern Family and where they all sit relative to this significant trading range reset. 

If you are unfamiliar with the January Calendar range, the Outlook 2025, link below, covers a brief description. 

Beginning with Granddad Russell 2000 IWM and Grandma Retail XRT, the range (red-low and green-high horizontal lines) illustrates perfectly how patience can pay off until the range breaks up or down. 

Do you think the market rally will broaden out? Watch IWM and the range carefully. 

The “Tran” Transportation IYT chart is incredible! Notice how the price action Friday showed the attempt to take out the January trend trade range and then failed.  

While that could change, this is a great example of the power of the range and that a failure is information as well. 

Sister Semiconductors SMH, has work to do to either rally more or fail. In the middle of the range, choppy conditions prevail. 

Here are 2 more examples of key market sectors and members of the Family, still very much in the range. 

Prodigal Son Regional Banks KRE, even with some strong bank earnings, has yet to clear the January trend trade highs. 

Big Brother Biotechnology IBB, still the weakest member of the Family, sits closest to the January lows. In fact, IBB is in the middle of the trend trade range and worth watching. 

Finally, BITO the ETF ProShares Bitcoin Strategy or our Crypto Younger Brother of the Family, stands alone. 

BITO is above the top of the January Calendar Range. The prediction I made in the Outlook 2025 is that Bitcoin could see $130-150,000 by the end of the first quarter. BITO is off to a great start. 

Between Geoff Bysshe and I, we have talked a lot about how key this range is. 

Now, you can see for yourselves how the Family or any instrument trends up, down, or in between the range.  

Seeing how an instrument reconciles the range will set you up to be on the right side of the trade. And with minimal risk and lots of profit potential! 

 

I was honored to be a part of the Money Show’s Annual Picks for 2025. A panel sat down with Mike Larson, Editor in Chief of the Money Show, to discuss value versus growth and our picks.  

The free report Money Show’s favorite experts picks. 

 

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.  

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more. 

 


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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here 

Outlook 2025, the PDF This will set you up on the right side of the market along with many picks 

Maggie Lake Price Rules Fundamentals Drool-Mish elaborates 01-15-25 

Podcast Geoff and Mish Mish and Geoff discuss that January lows are in but that’s different than a breakout 01-13-25 

BNN Bloomberg In spite of cool numbers, inflation still getting hotter-and some picks 01-15-25 

CNBC Asia Waiting for the January Calendar Range Reset D: Mish discusses that growth stocks could break out first, but best to wait until we have the true range 01-14-25 

Singapore Radio Broadcast Mish discusses that price discovery is crucial and will determine the narrative for the economy and market 01-13-25 

Business First AM Having trouble making money so far? Mish explains the importance of the January Trend Trade 01-10-25 

Real Vision Mish sits down with Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss many areas of the market and some picks 01-08-25 

Money Show Podcast Panel offering you their top picks for 2025 and why 01-08-25 

 

Coming Up: 

January 23 Live Coaching 

January 27 Podcast   

January 31 BNN Bloomberg  

Weekly: Business First AM  

   

ETF Summary 

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below) 

S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared the 50-DMA and the calendar range-597 pivotal 

Russell 2000 (IWM) 227 resistance to clear and still below the 50-DMA 

Dow (DIA) Touched the 50-DMA and cleared the calendar range 

Nasdaq (QQQ) 525 Jan high to clear but did get over the 50-DMA 

Regional banks (KRE) Just under the 50-DMA and January high  

Semiconductors (SMH) Back to bullish phase yet still below Jan high 

Transportation (IYT) Failed the 50-DMA and the Jan calendar range high 

Biotechnology (IBB) 137 key to clear for a rally    

Retail (XRT) Consumer is all and Granny is undecided 

iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Junk bonds super happy right here 

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