Economic Modern Family Still Not Fully Convinced

June 18, 2019

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Until the market sees what the Fed is thinking and possibly doing, all we can do now is wait.

The dichotomy between most of the Family and the S&P 500 continues to daunt those who look “inside” the market.

Furthermore, unless one is already invested and planning on locking in profits, based on these charts, I’m not convinced that equities are where one should look for the next big boon.

Today, Draghi announced the intention of lowering rates. France has already gone the way of negative rates.

Trump tweeted his optimism about a trade deal with China.

Meanwhile, China, Russia and India, in talks with one another, ran up in price.

What more must the Modern Family do to excite us about buying stocks?

Once again Biotechnology IBB, is the winner of the most improved since last Friday.

However, Regional Banks KRE, have not done too much except hold the green line or 200-WMA.

Transportation IYT is just having an inside week and still must clear the blue line or 50-WMA.

Semiconductors look better. Yet, on the daily chart, SMH remains in a caution phase.

Retail XRT, may be forming a double bottom. But before we can say that with confidence, the price must clear 44.20 or its 200-WMA.

And our granddaddy Russell 2000 IWM, ran straight into resistance at the 50-WMA or 155.21.

The dollar gained. The gold to silver ratio improved but has yet to flip. If it does, that is an inflationary sign. Which could mean the dollar falls.

That in turn, could help equities temporarily. But, if yields and the dollar fall while silver turns bullish, we could still head towards stagflation.

Anyway, I am just happy to report that the old reliable family members like IWM IYT and XRT, continue to keep us sober.

Every Tuesday and Thursday, I will be on KKOB radio at around 6:15 PM mountain time (8:15 PM EST) to discuss markets and market news.

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S&P 500 (SPY) Until it closes over 295 look out for weakness. Key support areas are 293.50 and 291.50

S&P 500 (SPY) 290 now the support to hold. 294.95 the all-time high

Russell 2000 (IWM) 152.75-153.35 now pivotal support. Really must clear 155.20.

Dow (DIA) 262.87 now support. 269.28 all-time high

Nasdaq (QQQ) 183.60 the 50-DMA support. 191.32 all-time high

KRE (Regional Banks) 51.40 support.  Overhead resistance at 53.50

SMH (Semiconductors) 105.50 now pivotal support. 108.75 the 50-DMA resistance

IYT (Transportation) Must clear 190 to look good. 185.50 pivotal. 183.50 support to hold

IBB (Biotechnology) 105.60 is the 50-DMA support. Stopped right at resistance at 108.60

XRT (Retail) 42.45 pivotal, 41 pivotal and 40.00 big support

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