March 8, 2023
By Mish Schneider
With Jerome Powell so data dependent as he stated on his second and last day of testimony, it seems pretty obvious where most of the growth and labor strength is coming from.
Not the first time we have seen semiconductors lead the market, we can say, historically, it has not ended well if the rest of the Economic Modern Family cannot keep up.
Tech’s relative premium compared to the S&P 500 is nearing its pandemic bubble peak.
This is in an environment though, a bit different than late 2021. We now have much higher interest rates, and slower economic growth.
And that is both the good news and bad news.
With AI and chip stocks so obviously outperforming the SPY and the rest of the Economic Modern Family, you have to wonder-
Delusional response, or like Wonder Woman herself, impervious to the barbs of rates, GDP, geopolitics and sentiment?
Of all the sectors in the Modern Family, SMH is indeed the strongest.
Our “Sister” SMH sits right below the 23-month or 2-year business cycle.
Why is this significant?
In 2021 we saw a major bull market. In 2022, we had a major bear market.
Is it any wonder that 2023 remains the what’s up year to date?
Yet it is also the reason we are watching SMH so carefully.
If SMH fails to take out the 23-month and begins to decline from here, clearly the weakness of Regional Banks (KRE) and Retail (XRT) has come home to roost.
Conversely, should SMH clear and close by month’s end the 23-month moving average, then it tells us 2 things.
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Mish in the Media
Business First AM On International Womens Day 03-08-23
The Pitch StockchartsTV 5 stock picks 03-08-23
CNBC Asia 03-06-23
Business First AM 03-07-23
Daily Briefing Real Vision 03-01-23
Kitco Gold and Sugar 3-01-23 Print Article
Your Daily Five StockchartsTV-Stock Picks 03-01-23 On our YT
CMC Markets Natural Gas and Silver 03-01-23 On Our YT
March 8th-Investment Strategy Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial
March 9th-Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial
March 10th Yahoo Finance Special-Earnings Season, the Best and the Worst
March 13th Mish on TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides
March 14th F.A.C.E. Forex Analytix with Dale Pinkert
March 16th Final Bar with Dave Keller StockchartsTV
And down the road
March 20th Madam Trader Podcast with Ashley Kyle Miller
March 22nd, The RoShowPod with Rosanna Prestia
March 24th Opening Bell with BNN Bloomberg
March 30th Your Daily Five StockchartsTV
March 31st Festival of Learning Real Vision “Portfolio Doctor”
April 24-26 Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas
S&P 500 (SPY) 390 support with 405 pivotal 410 resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) 190 resistance -185 support
Dow (DIA) 326 support 335 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 284 big support 300 pivotal 305 resistance
Regional banks (KRE) 57 big support 60 resistance
Semiconductors (SMH) 240 pivotal 248 key resistance
Transportation (IYT) 240 resistance and 230 support
Biotechnology (IBB) 125-135 trading range
Retail (XRT) 66 pivotal with 64 key support
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: