July 27, 2017
By Mish Schneider
In Shakespeare’s Much Ado About Nothing, Benedick begins as a man who vehemently claims he shall never marry only to become one who single-mindedly intends on marrying Beatrice.
When Beatrice asks him to murder Claudio, he protests, but ultimately engages Claudio in confrontation for the sake of his love.
This morning, when Facebook, Amazon, and NASDAQ opened to new highs, many bears who claimed they’d never buy, bought today.
Then the market asked the bears to prove their love and stick around, even if the market got murdered.
The flask in Benedick’s hand holds the “medicine” the bears needed to feel drunk enough to throw in the towel. And just like drunken bears, perhaps they bought a tad too late.
Yesterday, in my ongoing series live on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mishpaula/videos/10211701584147823/
I featured Transportation (IYT.)
As folks were buying, Trans told us to tighten stops. IYT opened lower and continued to slide all day.
Without a strong transportation sector, rallies tend to be short-lived.
As much as almost everybody has loved this market, has this rally really only been much ado about nothing?
That question might seem a bit harsh. However, warning signs popped up (not the least of which is that once IYT slid, so did the Russell 2000).
And Semiconductors, Biotechnology, and Regional Banks.
The hold out? Ironically, Granny Retail (XRT.)
On the heels of Nordstrom’s and Michael Kors’ rallying, XRT gained 1.4%.
That puts Granny in a weak Recovery phase, which could gain momentum should XRT hold 41.00. I figure a run to 43 is not out of the question.
The concern I have is that both IYT and IWM cleared the tops of their monthly chart channels only to fail them today.
Furthermore, the buyers who have appeared on every dip seemed conspicuously absent today.
172.50 and 142.90 respectively (IYT, IWM) are the key areas to close above by the end of day July 31st.
If not, then both signal channel failures on longer-term timeframes.
That could mean the start of a nastier sell-off. IYT has support at the 50-week moving average or around 161.
IWM could drop to 140. Yet, should that level break, we are looking at 134.
One day doth not a top confirm. Therefore, in the words of our lover Benedick,
“The savage bull may; but if ever the sensible Benedick bear it, pluck off the bull's horns and set them in my forehead, and let me be vilely painted, and in such great letters as they write "Here is good horse to hire," let them signify under my sign "Here you may see Benedick the married man."
Hence how our newest bulls may wind up feeling.
S&P 500 (SPY) 246.60 area pivotal support. Beneath see caution
Russell 2000 (IWM) 142.90 big number for the month end close. Above, holds over the top of the monthly channel. A close below, could be perceived as a failure. Under 140 could see 134
Dow (DIA) 215 pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) 144 pivotal
KRE (Regional Banks) 54.18 the 50-DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 88.00 resistance to clear. 85.25 the 50-DMA
IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed warning phase
IBB (Biotechnology) Reversal bar-310 next support
XRT (Retail) 40.44 support and if holds 41 could see 43.00
IYR (Real Estate) 80.70 should now hold
XLU (Utilities) confirmed bullish phase
GLD (Gold Trust) 119 pivotal Inside day
SLV (Silver) 15.25 support. Over 16 looks good
GDX (Gold Miners) Inside day-back over 22.80 looks better
USO (US Oil Fund) 10.00 pivotal. 10.60 big resistance
TAN (Solar Energy)A monthly close over 12.65 reverses a down trend
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Below 122.80 would be indication of higher rates to come. 124 resistance
VXX (Volatility Index) Some buyers out there
UUP (Dollar Bull) Landed right on the200-week moving average and holding
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