July 29, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I’m not so sure I would let a low volume, only slightly down session lull you if you are a committed bull into complacency after Monday’s session as there was some substantial deterioration if you look under the hood. First, examining the small caps (Russell 2000), which I wrote about after an inside day(when the range of the day is within the range of the day prior) to end last week as the best place to determine the tone was down .64% compared to the best performer, NASDAQ, which even with a healthy AAPL performance, still closed down .13%. Then, there are 2 significant phase changes for the worse-semiconductors, which confirmed a warning phase and real estate which went into an unconfirmed distribution phase. Rates climbed which appears to be saying the market is readying itself for the FED, who meet Wednesday, as no longer able or willing to keep the juice flowing. Now, keeping a balanced perspective, retail closed down marginally, which could mean the consumer confidence will prevent more deterioration or John Q. Public is late to the buying party.
S&P 500 (SPY)Inside day with Friday’s low 167.52 a key point to hold, with equal weight on a move back above 169 for the reverse case
Russell 2000 (IWM) 101.94 is the gap low from 7/11 as the best support area with a move over today’s high encouraging. For now, the topping action of last week is in place
Dow (DIA)Inside day.155.74 ultimate price to clear and like to see it hold Friday’s low
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Still needs to clear 75.74 to be clear of the topping action from 2 weeks ago
ETFs:
XLF (Financials)20.35 is the old 2013 high from the May 22nd top and now the support to hold
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed warning phase
XRT (Retail) Best chance to take leadership especially over 81.55
IYT (Transportation) Holding the 50 DMA but had damage today as one of the worst performers of the major sectors and groups
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the fast moving average but 196.97 has to clear now for this to resume momentum
IYR (Real Estate)After3 lows last week at 67.53, it took that level out by just a couple of ticks, but more importantly went into an unconfirmed distribution phase
XHB (Homebuilders) Unless this gets back above 30.00, looks like it too can visit the 200 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund)Inside day.
XLE (Energy) 84.00 big number
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Showing signs of higher rates in the cards
EWG (Germany) Inside day
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