Market in the Hands of a Balloon Twister

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People who create balloon animals are called Twisters.

To attract attention, twisters appear clown-like, dressing in bold colors.

Some twisters inflate their balloons with their own lungs. However, many use a pump.

When I think of the market and its main influencers, I cannot help but think “clownish twisters.”

Each day, the influencers fill the news with acts that shock some and delight others.

The influencers, for the most part, inflate news with their own lungs. Some, however, resort to pumping.

The litany of balloon animal’s twisted today includes,

1. A strong NY Empire State Manufacturing Index-best since 2009. Shipments, employment and order strong.
2. North Korea- Japan’s Prime Minister offering his fear that NK heightened to levels never seen before
3. “Obamacare is finished, it’s dead, gone...”-Trump will fix healthcare-
4. NAFTA jitters- “Don’t worry, we still have time” Mexican Government
5. Iraq-Kurdish tensions-drove oil prices up
6. Opioid Crisis-wait until next week for the announcement.
7. Major tax reform-if you can wait until December…
8. Fed Chairman-Taylor impresses Trump-yet he advocates for higher rates-Yellen next up on Thursday.
9. Netflix reports robust earnings, soaring after hours to new all-time highs

Investors continue to crowd into the top technology stocks. Are they twisting a T-Rex balloon?

Examining the Modern Family, today, the Russell 2000 (IWM), the Transportation Sector (IYT), and Retail (XRT) all closed the day red.

Transportation has room before we call “top”. 176 is the top of the monthly channel resistance line it cleared in September, now key support to hold.

The Russell 2000, if breaks 149 has room to 146.

However, if both IYT and IWM test lower levels, we look to Biotechnology as our potentially twisted mutant animal.

Should Trump declare a real war on opioids, look for a monthly close under 327. That will make any further rally seem less likely.

Speaking of opioids, Granny Retail reminds me of how anesthetized the public has become to any potential bad news. Volatility has disappeared. Complacency exists like an overdose of oxycodone.

Folks, I’ve been trading for a really long time.

Back in the day on the commodities exchanges, we loved a good rumor to buy or sell into. Our goal was to exit once the news refuted the rumor.

These days, the rumors, twists of news both fake and real, come at us with such fervor, one solution is to turn off everything-twitter, TV, newspapers, the internet.

If you cannot do that, then try to think of every bit of information as a balloon animal.

Need an image?

Try picturing an animal that begins as a shapeless, deflated piece of rubber, but at the hands of a deft clownish twister, becomes an object that’s hollow but real.

S&P 500 (SPY) 254 a good pivotal support number as this eked to new highs

Russell 2000 (IWM) 149 good level to hold with action that looks more sloppy than negative

Dow (DIA) Copy, repeat-New high close

Nasdaq (QQQ) 147.50 support.

KRE (Regional Banks) 55.50 pivotal support. Through 56.65 looks good.

SMH (Semiconductors) Wonder Woman-the sequel!

IYT (Transportation) 178.64 resistance with 176 big support

IBB (Biotechnology) 339 resistance and 335.50 near term support

XRT (Retail) 40.00 resistance

IYR (Real Estate) sold off from the top of the channel with 80.30 support

XLU (Utilities) 53.60 good pivotal support held today

GLD (Gold Trust) 122.20 support

SLV (Silver) 16.61 fills a gap-I’m waiting for that

GDX (Gold Miners) 23.30 pivotal support held. Through 24 better

XME (S&P Metals and Mining) A close over 33.20 better

USO (US Oil Fund) confirmed accumulation phase with 10.65 some daily chart resistance

XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) Inside day above the 200 DMA

OIH (Oil Service Holders) 25.40 pivotal resistance

TAN (Solar Energy) 22.00 now the pivotal number to hold

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 123-126 range

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.30 pivotal resistance and 24.00 pivotal support

FXI (China) 45.50 support point to hold