Can the Market’s Goose Keep Laying Golden Eggs?

October 14, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


blankCupid looks as though he’s squeezing the Golden Goose to see how many more eggs she has left to hatch.

Cupid loves him some eggs.

He especially loves the golden ones or the encouraging economic stats that keep feeding market lovers in love.

In Aesop’s Fable, the goose lays a golden egg a day, which makes a couple very rich.

So, the couple decide rather than wait for another day and another egg, they would kill the goose and cut her open.

Last week’s Golden Eggs:

Consumer Price Index up .55% from previous number

US Retail Sales up 1.66%

US Producer Price Index up .44%

ISM Purchasing Managers Index up 3.4%

US Retail Gas Price down 2.24%

US Unemployment Rate down 4.55%

With numbers like these, will greedy investors discover that the market’s golden goose is just like every other goose?

Last week in honor of Friday the 13th, I wrote that the market reminded me of Groundhog’s Day.

Only in my movie, “I wake up each day in a town that is fraught with harrowing images only to discover it’s just a dream.”

However, the dream began to stay with me long after I awoke on Friday.

The Russell 2000 (IWM), the Transportation Sector (IYT), Regional Banks (KRE) and Biotechnology (IBB) all closed the day red.

That’s four of the six sectors of the Modern Family.

Although Granny Retail (XRT) recovered a wee bit from Thursday’s crash, its inside trading day and close beneath the major moving averages is not much consolation.

With 2 weeks left in October, should Biotechnology, (IBB), close the month below 327.73, take heed. Channel failures after shallow breakouts are bearish!

As Commodities have been my major focus, I remind you of this:

The ratio between the performance of commodities versus stocks has only been this low twice in the last 100 years.

And this:

The astrological prediction that, “Serious setbacks towards October will bring a long-term bearish market as there is no more fire years before the Tiger year 2022.”

Looking ahead to this week, Industrial Production, Capital Utilization, Redbook’s Store Sales, and Housing Starts are the main economic numbers coming out.

Of course, stats will prove nothing more than a way to pleasure economists should any of the four-five Modern Family sectors continue south.

Or, Cupid could murder the Goose should uncertainty in geo-politics usurp a golden economy.

S&P 500 (SPY) 254 a good pivotal support number to start the week

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day and below the 10 DMA. 149 good level to hold out of the gate if good

Dow (DIA) New high close

Nasdaq (QQQ) New high close 147 support.

KRE (Regional Banks) 55.50 pivotal support

SMH (Semiconductors) 95.40 pivotal support after a new high close

IYT (Transportation) Nasty low volume reversal. Has to hold 178.64 Friday low

IBB (Biotechnology) 337 pivotal

XRT (Retail) 40.00 pivotal

IYR (Real Estate) Nearing the top of a channel

XLU (Utilities) 53.60 good pivotal support

GLD (Gold Trust) Proves my point about metals and commodities

SLV (Silver) 16.20 should now hold

GDX (Gold Miners) 23.30 pivotal support. Through 24 better

XME (S&P Metals and Mining) A close over 33.20 great

USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed accumulation phase needs to confirm

OIH (Oil Service Holders) 25.40 pivotal resistance

TAN (Solar Energy) 22.00 now the pivotal number to hold

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 123-126 range

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.30 pivotal resistance and 24.00 pivotal support

FXI (China) 45.50 support point to hold

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