August 14, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Some mixed indicators which make is more difficult to read next direction. Volume on Friday light. Could not close above the prior week high 120.08. Closed at the top of the range of last week. Closed above the 200 weekly moving average after a rocky start. Positive pivots. If it comes in higher Monday, would be inclined to follow it to the upside in anticipation of more upside. If it opens lower, provided it does not break 117.22, would look for a buy on the dip. But, if it gaps lower, then we could see a quick drop down to around 114. With a Death Cross, now officially in a Bear Phase.
DIA Looks nearly identical to SPY except the major moving averages are still a bit away from the threatening death cross.
QQQ Will make the same case here-although nowhere near the 200 weekly due to lingering strength in some leading stocks. Could not close above 53.83 but traded above that level on an intraday basis.
IWM Death cross and official bear phase. 68.80 the line in the sand. Over 70.66 see 71.60 area next resistance.
ETFs:
GLD** Confirms a buy over 170.75. Still strong chart.
SLV if gaps higher will follow it.
IBB Biotechnology-Good follow through after Thursday's bullish engulfing pattern. 90.00 now support to hold and would look for this to lead. Also closed above the prior weekly closing price.
SMH Semiconductors Hit the 10 DMA and must now clear 29.94 to keep going. Otherwise, under 29.15 vulnerable. Also closed higher than the closing price of the following week.
IYT Transportation First sector and group to weaken, now one that must firm for any sustainable rally. If opens higher, another one to follow although it could not close above the prior week's closing price. Same with XLY Small Caps.
XLF Financial Could not close above 13.43 on a weekly basis. Now must hold 12.54 and over 12.93 could firm again.
FCG Natural Gas Held 19, could see 20.20 area next. Through there, back above the 50 weekly moving average. Since touching 10 DMA, if fails 19.00, vulnerable down to the recent lows.
OIH** Oil Service Holders Closed back above the 200 weekly moving average at 132.20. Consider that now a pivotal area. Want to see 131.40 hold.
TLT** Interest Rates Inside day and holding the fast moving averages. Watch the way the range breaks to find next direction.
Note: Watch the ultrashorts after last week's retracement for long possibilities should market weaken.
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