January 5, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
More digestion near the top of the recent trading range with an accumulation day in volume in S&P 500 although still under the daily average. Same with NASDQ only that has managed to maintain the breakaway gap from Tuesday. Both indexes are close to but not quite yet overbought on the 2-Day RSI. Midcaps (IWM) staring down the 200 DMA after today's bullish looking candle. Interesting price point since it is closest to the top of its recent range which never did actually clear that 200 DMA. This could mean that we see a run in midcaps (earnings season is upon us) which will bode well for the market in the near term.
ETFs:
GLD Could be bottoming for sure; but could just as easily be returning to overhead resistance at the 200 DMA as it approaches overbought.
XLF (Financials) Closed right on the EMA after a real look of leadership. Not overbought so could see 13.80 next. But has to hold 13.38.
IYT (Transportation) Hard to tell if this lagged or is just paused and getting ready to rocket as it is one that is not close to overbought right here above the 200 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Even with today's rally, still technically a failure from the 200 DMA for now.
IBB (Biotechnology) Now you know why we wait 2 days before we claim there has been a failure, breakout, phase change, etc.
SMH (Semiconductors) Tuesday high 31.32. Today's high 31.28. Now approaching overbought although it did give us a one day unconfirmed phase change to Accumulation.
OIH (Oil Service) Filled the gap from a couple of days ago and held. Also worked off overbought conditions and closed above last week's highs. Clearly vulnerable, but would not rule out a rally over 118.45.
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