Misery No Longer Loves Company; It Insists On It

June 9, 2014

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Russell Baker

As positive as the market looked coming into this week and as positive as it may continue to look heading into the lazy, hazy days of summer, if there is one lesson to be learned from 2014-this is not 2013 nor is this a year to rest on long or short laurels for too long.

However, with that said, reading the analysts who live to be right, one digestion day, and the tweets come out calling for the top, which is probably the best reason to think we are not even close to that yet.

After all, the overall participation in the market is scant-the players are the active investors and the HFTs, which probably explains the contrarian nature this year-sell when everything looks great, buy when the bottom is falling out.

Be that as it may, never confuse a low volume sell off with a top. Yet, continue to trim profits into the rallies and use logical, systematic risk management when buying strength.

If rates continue to firm and TLTs fail a critical chart point, assume US Manufacturing and Retail can hold up and find higher levels.

S&P 500 (SPY) Day 10 and counting of the breakaway gap and lots looking for some correction. Volume super low Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Another fine day with 115.11 good point of support now

Dow (DIA) Similar candle to SPY today-kinda doji-hammerish looking with low volume

Nasdaq (QQQ) Resting

XLF (Financials) Started strong and see nothing resembling a top although a correction is always possible

KRE (Regional Banks) Overbought now but that’s ok

SMH (Semiconductors) Joins DIA SPY with that inverted hammer doji candle-which doesn’t mean much on low volume and without a second day confirmation

IBB (Biotechnology) Nice start-sort of blah finish but strong

XRT (Retail) Hit resistance-will watch carefully

IYR (Real Estate) Big day tomorrow watching if can hold the fast moving average or not

ITB (US Home Construction) Hitting resistance but overall good

GLD Will go south until rates firm

USO (US Oil Fund) Woke up again and now should hold today’s lows if there is more to upside

OIH (Oil Services) New highs and getting overbought

FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) 22.30 support with another good looking chart if clears 2014 highs

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs hanging onto the 50 DMA for dear life-will be fascinating to see what it does from here

PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) 27.23 2014 high

UUP (Dollar Bull) Back to testing the 200 DMA

EEM (Emerging Markets) Breakaway gap follow through