New Fed Chair, New Bond Playbook: How to Trade TLT

February 9, 2026

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Long-term bonds are entering a new era. With a new Federal Reserve Chair and uncertainty around the next direction of interest rates, investors can’t rely on predictions alone.

In this Market Minute, I break down what TLT (long-term U.S. Treasury bonds) represents, why investors use it for safety and diversification, and why price action matters most right now. When rate direction is unclear, the chart becomes your guide.

This episode includes a look at the monthly chart of TLT, highlighting the bigger trend in long bonds and the key levels investors should watch as markets navigate inflation, growth concerns, and Fed policy shifts.

Here's the video.

Topics covered:
• What TLT is and why it matters
• How long bonds react to interest rates
• Why 2026 brings new uncertainty for rates
• Using the monthly chart to guide decisions
• When long bonds may become attractive again

In uncertain rate environments, don’t guess—watch price.

Note that this is different than our other YouTube channel featuring the Economic Modern Family.

That is for financial literacy.

Mish’s Daily of Mish’s Market Minute on the MarketGauge YouTube channel under “shorts” is meant for the more serious self-directed investor.

They do, however, overlap.

PLEASE, go to our YouTube Channel, watch the content we have shared to date.

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To see our Financial Literacy Animated Series:
The Economic Modern Family is about to step off the page and onto your screen!

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For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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