Now That the July 6-Month Calendar Range is Set

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By now, you might have read either my or Geoff’s article on the July 6-month calendar range reset.

If not, I highly recommend you click on Geoff’s “Trades and Tutorials” above.

The chart of the Russell 2000 (IWM) shows a really wide July range.

The red line (low made the July 6^th at 180.72) and the high made July 17^th at 194.36, gives us a glimpse of a potential trading range.

IWM’s price rose fast in just a few short days since July 6^th.

Now, as this week begins with a test of the July 6-month calendar range high, should that level break down, it could mean a substantially wide trading range in store for the small caps.

The July low is seemingly far.

Of course, should we see a pop from current levels, then we can surmise more upside with 200 the next level of chart resistance.

Since small caps are a major focus for us, we will watch these levels carefully, especially in this heavy data driven week.

We also are watching Long Bonds through TLT.

The July range here has significance in several different ways.

1. So far, it is the high and low of the calendar range.
2. Current levels are not far from the high. And, rather far from the low. That tells us, one push above the 200 daily moving average and the green line at 103.26 has definite implications for the market.
3. It equally tells us that in between can be interpreted as “noise.”
4. Furthermore, a failure of the 6-month calendar range low in red has very different implications for the market.

Put IWM and TLT together, and we will have a solid idea of the next trends.

For fun, we have included a stock. International Paper (IP) is on our list.

IP is a leading paper and packaging company that stores raw materials such as wood fibers, pulp, and recycled materials for paper production.

The stock surfaced for us when we researched companies that store raw materials as part of our inflation round 2 narrative.

IP stopped right at the 6-month calendar range high. Now in a Recuperation phase (over the 50-DMA), we find the current price compelling.

We show you this so you can see the power of combining trends, phases, chart patterns, and calendar ranges.

Next, if IP sets up, we will ascertain risk, profit targets and position sizing.

IP is a stock Mish talks about in this week’s edition of Business First AM with Angela Miles.

 

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media - All clips here

BNN Bloomberg 07-20-23

Business First AM 07-17-23

Options Insight with Imran Lakha 07-13-23

TD Ameritrade Nicole Petallides 07-13-23

Real Vision Proper Link-full episode 07-12-23

CMC Markets Daytrading Futures Before and After CPI 07-12-23

Business First AM Market Ease 07-10-23

Business First AM Don’t Fight the Fed 07-11-23

Making Money with Charles Payne 07-10-23

Yahoo Finance 07-06-23

 

Coming Up:

July 25 Singapore Radio

July 26 Your Daily Five Stockcharts

July 27 Live Coaching

July 28 IBD Live

 

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY) 450 pivotal area 455 resistance 437 July low

Russell 2000 (IWM) 193 is the 23-month holy grail

Dow (DIA) 34,800 support

Nasdaq (QQQ) Under its 6-month calendar range high, already showing signs of stress

Regional banks (KRE) Consolidating over its July calendar highs-positive

Semiconductors (SMH) Holds here ok-needs to clear 161 and under 147 trouble

Transportation (IYT) Right on the July calendar range high

Biotechnology (IBB) 128 support now to hold

Retail (XRT) Never cleared the July calendar range high-now, 66 is key support