Phased Not Confused-What Happens Next?

July 24, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


blankNearly ripe for the picking, I am busy putting the final touches on my manuscript.

The book’s working title, “Phased Not Confused: “A Multisensory Teaching Approach to Understanding Your Money, Investments and the Economy” combines how to define, identify and trade within weekly phases.

I also include the Modern Family and ten Megatrends as a roadmap to the macro picture.

Monday started the week out slowly.

The slew of earnings this week should easily help us determine both the new and continuing phases in overall equities and the Modern Family.

Currently, all except Retail (XRT) are in Bullish Phases.

Questions now are:

  1. For how long will that last?
  2. How will Retail’s drag impact the others?
  3. What can we expect if Transportation continues to slip?

Last Friday, on Mish’s Market Minute Daily Facebook page, I introduced the second Modern Family cartoon character, Grandma Retail.

XRT or the ETF of brick and mortar weakened out of the gate today.

Granny’s 1.5% decline in the face of the Russell’s consolidation near all-time highs indicates something big is coming.

Add to that, the limp reaction of Alphabet Inc.’s earnings report.

GOOGL declined over 2% after hours.

Amazingly, the overall market has ignored poor Granny thus far.

Yet should the biggies, besides GOOGL, fall this week after earnings, Granny Retail could have some unexpected company.

That chain reaction could cure the market of its opioid addiction.

Presently, volatility and fear do not exist in the market’s happy place.

Speaking of mind-numbing happy places, Biotechnology leads today’s winners.

IBB gained .77% with Regeneron up 1%, and Amgen sitting near all-time highs.

Speculators are fat and happy.

That certainly becomes a signal for caution should weakness in Retail, Transportation and now possibly FANG stocks prevail.

Retail’s in a bearish phase.

Charles Dow (over 100 years ago) said Transportation typically leads the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Transportation (IYT) rests only 1.00 above its 50-DMA. A break of that level will put it into a warning phase.

The purpose of the book is to educate novices and experts alike on the beauty of watching and trading phases.

That means, like the pears in the photo, waiting for the next move to ripen will avoid a tummy ache one gets from eating fruit before its time.

***Tuesday at 5 PM EST on Mish’s Market Minute Daily Facebook page, I introduce Prodigal Son, Regional Banks. Check it out!

S&P 500 (SPY) 245 now pivotal. Not a strong runaway gap, but small gap up held provided it doesn’t trade below 245.98

Russell 2000 (IWM) Backed away from the top of the channel top. More consolidation or the start of a failure? We need more evidence either way

Dow (DIA) Second close under the fast-moving average.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 144 pivotal.

KRE (Regional Banks) Bounced off the 50 DMA. 54.10 pivotal

SMH (Semiconductors) 86.68 pivotal area.

IYT (Transportation) 168.60 important and back over 172.50 much better

IBB (Biotechnology) New 2017 highs-can see 330 next. Specs here which could be the blow off we need

XRT (Retail) Still bearish under 40.00

IYR (Real Estate) After three waves lower, should this clear back over 81.50 BUY! 78.50 support

GLD (Gold Trust) 119 pivotal

SLV (Silver) 15.25 pivotal support

GDX (Gold Miners) Has to clear 22.80

USO (US Oil Fund) Teeny range inside day. 9.60 the 50 DMA

TAN (Solar Energy) Still looks Parabolic

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Should this break 125, I’d think correction up over

VXX (Volatility Index) No drama no fear

UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.18 the 200-week moving average

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