May 15, 2024
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Today we have another look at the 23-month moving averages.
The first one for context is of the S&P 500 (SPY).
SPY cleared the 23-month in 2023.
SPY tested the 23-month moving average after the breakout in October 2023.
SPY closed today on new all-time highs.
One could say that SPY entered an expansion phase last year and is, well, still expanding.
In contrast, the next chart is of Alibaba and its 23-month moving average.
We know that if the price clears that MA, then we will assume that the stock has more room to run with a now 2-year business cycle expansion.
Nonetheless, the stock fell after earnings and now we use the support level of $77-80 to gauge the company’s health.
In 2023, KRE was the first sector in the Family to signal a warning in March.
That is when SPY fell to test its 23-month and held it, telling us that the bank debacle while a bit destabilizing, was not a buy opportunity against major support.
Presently, the 23-month MA sits at $51.30.
Today it traded to a high of 51.75, settling at 51.04 or just below the 23-month MA.
Hence, while KRE has been in contraction really since 2022, it now stands a chance of going into expansion.
We are not there yet, but keep your eyes on
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
CMC Markets How to Trade CPI day in futures 05-15-24
Business First AM Gameplan for trading Alibaba 05-15-24
Final Bar with Dave Keller Mish and Dave discuss commodities, the move to all time highs in indices and a tariff pick 05-14-23
Business First AM Mish explains why these meme moves parallel the market peak in 2022 plus gives one stock pick 05-14-24
Cheddar TV Opening Bell Mish helps get viewers prepared for CPI, stagflation, earnings and trade war implications 05-13-24
Making Money With Charles Payne Mish and Charles discuss transportation index and Fed policy mistakes-plus a few picks 05-09-24
CMC Markets Mish highlights the pivotal levels and support/resistance zones for a selection of key markets 05-08-24
Business First AM Mish covers 3 top areas to watch and gives a stock pick up over 10% today! 05-06-24
Stockpick.app Weekly video Mish covers the economic modern family, natural gas and gold 05-06-24
Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva Mish and Jim talk about the cost of AI on the already short supply of many raw materials 05-04-24
Benzinga Market Prep Mish is there for the jobs report and gives you an action plan Starts at minute 27:49 05-03-24
Coming Up:
May 15 CNBC Asia
May 16 BNN Bloomberg
May 16 Kitco News
May 20 Singapore Radio
May 23 Live Coaching with Mish
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) Near all time highs
Russell 2000 (IWM) 210.80 ATHs
Dow (DIA) 387 support and 400 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) New all-time highs
Regional banks (KRE) Compelling but not there yet
Semiconductors (SMH) New ATHs now 230 support
Transportation (IYT) 64 support 67 resistance -still relatively weak
Biotechnology (IBB) 137 now pivotal while 140 next resistance
Retail (XRT) Closed red and looking vulnerable so eyes here and on IYT
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Heading to the top of the recent range and back over the 50-DMA
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