Russell 2000: Doctor's Prognosis for the Week

November 23, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

I left you on Sunday playing doctor. In this case, Concierge Doctor. And as such, I made a house call (the only way one gets a doctor to come over) to the Modern Family.

After a thorough examination of the Russell 2000s or Granddad IWM, the diagnosis for trading within a range between the 50 (114.80 area) and the 100 DMA (117.33 level) was hypertension.

The prescription was for more exercise or in this case, hurdle jumping over the 100 DMA at 117.30. IWM complied. However, with those few extra pounds around the middle (and that’s before Thanksgiving), he hurdled yet couldn’t clear too far away from the 100 DMA.

Not enough to frighten Granddad into giving up, but enough to think perhaps its best to wait until after the holiday, begin a diet and then try the 100 DMA again.

Biotechnology, Big Bro, began this week with an inside day Friday (a trading range inside the trading range of the day prior). Inside day rules mean that the way the outside day range breaks should result in follow through to that direction.

With Anemia, IBB took a B12 shot. It helped, but wasn’t enough. The number to clear 339.41 eluded Big Bro while the good news is that the low 332.73 of the outside candle served as support.

Although not a family member, Treasury Bonds (TLT) diagnosed with Arrhythmia or an irregular heartbeat, rallied. That puts off surgically implanting a pacemaker for now. More talk of the Fed raising rates and that option is back on the table.

Granny Retail (XRT) is holding up well. Most likely, with Black Friday around the corner, best to hope she builds up her upper body strength by carrying home lots of shopping bags filled with goodies. Too soon to say.

Transportation (IYT) should also be impacted by holiday shopping sales. With constipation preventing it from flushing out the 200 DMA at 151, Trannies did hold 147.00.

Semiconductors (SMH) had the hardest time on Monday.
Macular Degeneration has no cure, but we hoped to see some improvement with SMH distancing itself from the 200 DMA. Instead, Semi’s dropped below those levels.

Regional Banks (KRE) has Sciatica from trying to lift up the rest of the Family. His job is to deal with the back pain and continue to hold above the 45.20 area.

With the Thanksgiving Holiday this Thursday followed by a half day on Friday, I will play patient Doctor. So far, seems the Family wishes to comply with my prescribed treatments.

Realistically, I will take any glitches (in the market) as temporary symptoms of overindulgence as I assume the Family will eat too much, drink too much and watch too much TV.

S&P 500 (SPY) 213 big resistance, 210 pivotal and 206.50 big support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Only index to have a green day which is just fine by me. Want to see this hold 116.

Dow (DIA) Until we see the Terror at 18k resolve, this looks like a good rally to overhead resistance. 175 is the 65-week moving average to defend

Nasdaq (QQQ) 112.65 pivotal and over 115.47 takes it to new highs

XLF (Financials) If holds 24.25 good and must clear 24.97

KRE (Regional Banks) 44.80 pivotal 45.21 good to clear with 46 even better

SMH (Semiconductors) 54.22 pivotal. Like to see support hold at 53.65

IYT (Transportation) 145.50 the big support and 150.96 the big overhead resistance

IBB (Biotechnology) 340 resistance, 329 pivotal and 349 big guns 200 DMA

XRT (Retail) Strong day which is encouraging

IYR (Real Estate) Stopped just under the resistance at 75.27 the 20O DMA

ITB (US Home Construction) Good action considering the holiday

GLD (Gold Trust) A move over 103 would be a relief

SLV (Silver) Under 13.40 trouble. Over 13.80 way better

GDX (Gold Miners) 12.92 is the reversal bottom low so this is not necessarily over yet