Semis Happily Sing the Swimming Song

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“Breast Stroke, Back Stroke, Fancy Diving Too…”

The week begins with our Modern Family enjoying the last few weeks at summer camp at the pool. Some of the members waded in the baby pool while others swam the deep end.

The best performing sector and the young lad in my Modern Family, Semiconductors (SMH), did some fancy diving, gapping higher right out of the gate, taking out 52.00 and rocketing much higher. The big Semi names Intel (INTC) and Texas Instruments (TXN) closed up over 2.6% and 3.5% respectively. In SMH, 53.00 is some resistance, but 52.00 should now act as good support.

Granddad Russell (IWM) might need some swimmies to stay afloat. To remain buoyant, he has to clear the 200 DMA. Otherwise, 120 is a key area to keep from drowning.

Granny Retail who generally prefers bathing to swimming, today joined a water aerobics class. XRT took back the 200 DMA and if can clear 97.61, takes back the July 6-month Calendar Range low.

Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE) swam the back stroke. KRE returned to an unconfirmed bullish phase which now needs to confirm with a second close above 44.12 the 50 DMA.

Biotechnology (IBB) never got his toes wet. Preferring a lifeguard position, IBB couldn’t cross the 50 DMA and shows vulnerability. Yes folks, we really do not want to see our lifeguard (Big Bro) wearing nothing but a life vest.

Transportation (IYT) had an inside day (trading range within the trading range of Friday.) Trannies stayed in the shallow end of the pool dunking half her body into the water clearing over the 50 DMA. She has to stay above that 50 DMA another day and then maybe, will consider getting her hair wet too.

The Camp Counselors donned their Commodities swimwear. Gold, Silver, Oil, Corn and Coffee all belly flopped into the pool making quite a splash.

The FED could easily throw a Baby Ruth bar in the pool with more talks of a rate rise and you know, there could be the turd to end the rally.

S&P 500 (SPY) Looking at our 3 layers-the 2015 trading range, the July 6-month calendar range and the phases, SPY had little risk of falling to either trading range as we began this week, and now has had its 7th Phase change since July began going from Warning to Bullish To Warning back to Bullish again. But is that healthy? 211.28 is the July 6-month Calendar Range high. 210 pivotal. Those levels should help us see what’s next. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) Impressive but not enough unless it clears/closes over 121.37

Dow (DIA) Good news is that this is back over the July range.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Returned back over the July 6-month Calendar range high-solid leader leading

XLF (Financials) Fins helped a lot today clearing 25.35 and getting close to the 2015 highs

IYT (Transportation) 148.85 the 50 DMA to defend

IBB (Biotechnology) Got the bounce back to 375 and closed weaker with 365 key support

IYR (Real Estate) Didn’t 75.20 area will be hard to resist”. Although closed red Monday, 74.00 is the key area to hold and we will continue to watch for a move over 75.20.

XHB (US HomeBuilders) Near 2015 highs which looks inevitable to clear with a 7 month consolidation

GLD (Gold Trust) 106 is still my point to clear

SLV (Silver) Ran to the 50 DMA and retreated

GDX (Gold Miners) Big move but not with a clean reversal

USO (US Oil Fund) Lovely potential for a reversal bottom if confirms

OIH (Oil Services) Bottomed last week

XLE (Energy) Bottomed last week

UNG (US NatGas Fund) Friday was an inside day and the instrument defended the 50 DMA (Recovery Phase). However, it never cleared 13.75. I continue to like this one for Tuesday.

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) We looked for a reversal from Friday’s low with that as a risk. TAN needed the close over 34.06 to confirm with Tuesday most likely providing traders with a better sense if the reversal sticks.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) After touching 124.40 the 200 DMA resistance-it fell hard. Will see if can hold 122.40 now

UUP (Dollar Bull) Got the pull back after last Friday’s new 60+ day high

EEM (Emerging Markets) Looking at a bottom potential again

EWW (Mexico) Wrote, “Could be bottoming and offers traders a decent risk.” It actually underperformed the market but continues to hold interest.

EWI (Italy) Big move after it cleared 15.63 the July high

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Saw little about China helping the market relax but clearly it did

CORN (Corn) After holding 23.00 it took off to the 50 DMA resistance

JO (Coffee) Needs a second close over the 50 DMA