January 18, 2023
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Written by Mish Schneider
KRE Regional Banks is a member of my Economic Modern Family.
With bank earnings in gear, this ETF measures the smaller banks-the ones where people living in more rural communities and smaller cities often go to borrow and save money.
Here is a passage from March 22,2022
“We have and continue to use Mish's Economic Modern Family to successfully navigate through the pandemic and now, in 2022, we use its insights to guide us through a year that has three main overhead pressures: geopolitical stress from the current Russian/Ukraine war, inflation and, finally, rising interest rates.”
I quote that passage as one week later marked the high print of the S&P 500. And we all know what happened from there.
So, here we are in 2023 and the enthusiasm for a bottom remains high.
Calls for a Fed pivot are relentless.
Yet, like March 22, 2022, the Russia/Ukraine war persists, inflation, although cooled is some areas forges on, and rising interest rates-well the FED has said nothing about a pivot.
By the way, deJa’Vu all over again, the U.S. has a debt ceiling emergency in the midst.
I remember 2011. The political battle to delay the inevitable-raise the ceiling and print more money. Until everyone played nice, the market fell 20%.
That makes me wonder, is this why KRE has lagged and lives so dangerously close to a weekly chart breakdown?
First, the 6-month calendar range.
The January high in KRE is 61.08 or just under the 50-daily moving average.
The 6-month low is 57.50, precisely on the 200-week moving average.
We are loving the calendar range this year because of how well it lines up with major moving averages.
So, now KRE sits about midpoint of the range.
A move under 57.50 and regardless of what the other members are doing, we will take that as fair warning.
A move above 61.10 and we take that as a good sign and continue shopping.
However, this mid-range chop can wreak havoc, so tread lightly with some patience until the range reconciles.
And, remember-always best to look at the weakest link in the family as well as the strongest member. KRE is the weakest.
So we ask, temporary malaise, or contagious with further illness on the horizon?
Mish’s Picks are already up 10-20% outperforming the SPY!
Want to take advantage of her stellar track record and ensure a profitable trading year?
For more detailed trading information, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more about Mish's Premium trading service.
You don’t want to miss Mish's 2023 Market Outlook E-available now
Click here if you'd like a complimentary copy of Mish's 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.
Get your copy of
Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth
Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!
"I grew my money tree and so can you!"- Mish Schneider
Mish in the Media
Tonight 1/18/23
CNBC Asia
Thursday 1/19/23
Mish Returns to Making Money with Charles Payne!
Charting Forward: Q1 Market Outlook
StockchartsTV 01-13-23
Bloomberg BNN 01-11-23
Global Inflation Points and Market Opportunity
Stockcharts Your Daily Five 01-12.23
Benzinga 01-11-23
How to Grow Your Wealth in 2023
StockCharts - Final Bar 01-11-23
Know Your Timeframe
Business First AM 01-09-23
Inflation Worries WORLDWIDE
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) Jan calendar range reset day 1 and SPY fails the 200 and 50-DMA
Russell 2000 (IWM) In better shape than SPY but still a nasty reversal and must hold 180
Dow (DIA) Back under the 50-DMA as industrials lose ground
Nasdaq (QQQ) Sitting just under the 50-DMA-and never cleared the 200-WMA
Regional banks (KRE) Led the way down and now must hold 57.50
Semiconductors (SMH) Still holding key support at the 50-WMA so we shall see
Transportation (IYT) 225 key support here
Biotechnology (IBB) Still best sector with 132 key support
Retail (XRT) 63 the 200-WMA if market good must hold
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: