August 9, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Well I guess it took the weekly RSI to read oversold and one last flush after the FED meeting to get the rally we all waited for. Question now is how much and for how long? The longer it holds 115.70 the 200 weekly moving average the better. I would like to see some digestion since this level of volatility is frightening and not too healthy in the long run. Finally got us some positive pivots. A running theme tomorrow is to buy dips to the pivots on the stronger stocks-especially ones that took out R1. Another theme will be to reverse that and look for shorts of those same instruments that fail S1.
DIA The 200 weekly moving average is 107.15 but that did get tested until after the FED meeting so it was hard to know which way it would go next and what the risk was until the last hour. Then, off to the races.
QQQ 55.00 some good resistance.
IWM** Big key is that this is the only index that has an Accumulation day in volume. In fact, better volume today than in all of the down days. Plus, although the daily chart is no longer oversold, the weekly one still shows an extremely low RSI. Could have a lot more room to upside.
ETFs:
GLD Unless it clears 172, a break of 169.76 could mean more profit taking in store. Trend still very strong, but a move down to 164.75 area is fairly likely and a good buy opportunity.
SLV Once this failed 37.42 as I wrote last night, had a super low risk short. Slope on 50 DMA now slightly down with a close beneath. Now back over 37.19. the short trend will reverse.
IBB SMH IYT stayed above 200 weekly moving average and turned out to be great for the relief rally. IYR followed as well. Like the indexes, watch to see what happens on a dip to the FTPs.
FCG Hopefully some of you watched this move back above the 200 weekly moving average. Now, 18.31 is support and 18.57 pivotal on a closing basis.
OIH** Inside day and high today matches the 200 weekly moving average exactly. 132.19 is that number.
TLT We know rates cannot go to zero, at least we do not think so. Still watching for this to top out, but not fighting the trend for now.
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