January 2, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Volume wise, the week ended with a whimper and all three major U.S. indexes finished lower. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 Index closed down 0.6% for the week and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.5% on a weekly basis. For the year, the Dow rose 5.5%, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%. Obviously you all have been reading the words "mixed bag." And, if you look at the numbers in Europe and Asia, our mixed bag looks like a "Birken" bag.
As we begin trading in the US this year, some key reports due out this week:
Tuesday: December manufacturing.
Wednesday: November factory orders along with December U.S. motor vehicle sales.
Thursday: ADP will release its December employment figures, and ISM will release its December non-manufacturing data. Also, on Thursday, same-store sales data for December.
Friday: December unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls are released.
Furthermore, the Fed will release the minutes on Tuesday from the Federal Open Market Committee's Dec. 13 meeting. Traders will be looking for some affirmation from the Fed that the U.S. economy is improving.
SPY Hovering near 1,260 once again, the 4th attempt to push through the 200-day moving average. Support to hold 123, underlying. To clear once and for all, 129.42, still some distance away. Otherwise, still a range bound market.
QQQ: 55.45 first support to hold or could see 54.15 quickly. 56.18 then 56.42 the overhead areas to clear.
IWM: 72.50 is a key area to hold before we start holding our breath at 70.58, last swing low on 12/14. Through 75.39, we once again watch the 200 day moving average Holy Grail now at 76.22.
ETFs:
GLD Before we say key reversal following the gap higher, first Friday's low must hold, secondly, it has room to overhead resistance at the 200 DMA 158.00.
XRT (Retail) Gorgeous trendline if blasts through 53.25 Otherwise, would not discount another drop closer to 51.00.
XLF (Financials) Inside day and closed at a pivotal area. 12.85 is the fast moving average and a hopeful place to hold. A lot of overhead resistance so let's start with 13.48, first biggie.
IYT (Transportation) 90.55 must clear or after a failure to close over the 200 DMA, 87.20, the next underlying support to watch.
IYR (Real Estate) 58.20 important to clear and 55.20 to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) At the top of a channel.
SMH (Semiconductors) More vulnerable than some other sectors/groups. Through 31.50 would impress. 29.75 next key area to hold with a break of the last swing low 28.69 trouble.
OIH (Oil Service) Must clear 116.44 and hold 113.
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