Stock Pickers Market

---

SPY Still the major concern. The 50 DMA held, but is still declining in slope. The floor trader pivots are neutral to slightly negative. 131.45 a big pivotal area now for Monday. If that area fails, considering Friday was an inside day, with no discernable volume pattern, under 130.68 see a test of 128.75 level next. But, above 132 would be a healthy sign.  On the weekly chart, the bullish trend remains intact.

QQQ Also an inside day on light volume. 10 day moving average is the overhead resistance. A close above that would be encouraging. Otherwise, would like to see it hold 57.66. On Friday, 57.40 area was intraday support. If that breaks down, with a declining slope of the 50 DMA beneath, we could easily see another test there. Earnings in leading stocks will have a big impact as we begin this week.

IWM another inside day and relatively narrow range after an atypical wide range last Thursday. The 50 day moving average is still in a declining slope. With negative pivots, the indication points towards more downside, especially if the 50 DMA breaks. However, above 83 should test the 10 day moving average overhead. Ideally, would like to see some digestion and sideways action between the two moving averages over the next couple of days.

This is a real stock pickers market. Very mixed signals with a bearish to neutral McClellan Oscillator, meaning the market can go either way. In the near term, while the market tries to find next direction, buying weakness and selling strength has worked for daytrading. Unless you are managing deep in the money swing positions by trailing up/down stops and locking in profits, until we clear earnings on the leading stocks and come to resolution concerning the US debt ceiling, would be reluctant to over commit on any new long or short swing positions. Longer-term trend on the weekly charts still bullish.

Featured ETFS:

SLV inside day on Friday. We locked in half of our long position, keeping the balance considering the weekly close was above 37.90, the high over the last two months. Above 38.37 expect a move to 40 and possibly 44.50. Near term support at 37.75 and then 37.25.

EWC**Four weeks ago, this broke and closed below the 50 weekly moving average. The following week, it tested those lows then rallied and closed back above the 50 weekly moving average keeping the long term bullish trend intact. On the daily chart, Friday had an inside day after a return move above the declining 50 day moving average. The 200 day moving average is ultimate support. Could possibly be forming a head and shoulders bottom with the neckline above 32.90.

XRT**a positive slope on the underlying 50 day moving average. If it holds 53.65, and gets back above Friday's hi, has some resistance at the 10 day moving average, but above that expect a move to 56.

SMH after coming very close to testing lows from June at 32.15, recovered on the close. Also significant is the test and hold of the 50 weekly moving average. If these critical support areas continue to hold and it gets back above 32.80, especially on a closing basis, although it still has a lot of overhead resistance, the bullish weekly longer term trend stays intact. Otherwise, this will not bode well for the rest of the market and a test of the 30 area very likely.

OIH Rallied above the 10 DMA. Next resistance 154. Recent high 156.28. Now, must hold the 10 DMA or could retrace back to 150.40.

UUP Provided 21.34 holds, still see room for the dollar to rally.

For more detailed analysis join me, along with hundreds of other subscribers, at Mish's Market Minute and get my daily trade picks, trade alerts, training videos, and exclusive analysis tools. Sign up for Mish's Market Minute now and get a free 2 week trial!