January 7, 2024
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
On inflation
I like this quote-
“Goods deflation likely transitory as downward pressure on goods demand and input costs are fading. 1H24 global core inflation likely to settle near 3%, which won’t resolve the immaculate disinflation debate.”
And this quote does not include the steep rise in shipping costs of late.
Note the move in costs as of early December was at yearly lows.
One month later, the costs are at yearly highs.
Super cycles don’t just fade away-they cycle-with volatility and passion just like the word super suggests.
40% up or down price moves in commodity related instruments is not unusual and very much like we saw in the 1970s.
Commodities will flatline when inflation is over, just like they did for so years before 2020, We do not expect that to happen until mid-2025 to early 2026.
The issues for sticky inflation:
It’s global,
Still shortages of basic raw materials,
Demand not as weak as folks thought,
Geopolitics,
Weather concerns,
FED might not lower rates, but they won’t raise them either. Furthermore, so far, many commodities are not concerned with the dollar or rates-any misstep by the Fed can send commodity pricing soaring,
Recent job and ISM reports are deceptive- There were significant drops in employment and new orders, while prices paid remain quite elevated showing that inflation remains sticky. Wages rose in December and are now back over 4%. Part of the strong labor numbers posted Friday is because the government hiring went up 5.2% this year.
Disclaimer: There are no guarantees and of course, our Year of the Dragon might avoid any trips to Hell. But in case:
How will we know when inflation returns?
Dollar does something more dramatic.
Silver starts to outperform gold.
Sugar (perfect example of a super cycle type volatility) heads back over 22 cents
We expect the next wave to occur in late spring/summer 2024.
Looking at the sugar chart of the March contract, in March 2021 sugar traded at $.15.5 a pound. (In 2020 the prices was $.06 a pound.
Since then, sugar spent most of late 2021 and most of 2022 consolidating. Then in February 2023, it took off finally peaking at $.28 in November 2023.
That dramatic drop is exactly my point. This is what happened in the mid to late 1970s.
Sugar is still 4 times higher in price than in 2020.
Should we see this return over the 200-daily moving average (green line) or over $.22, I would think that my favorite barometer is telling us something-at least something about becoming too complacent in a world full of powder kegs.
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Mish in the Media - All clips here
Real Vision Daily Briefing Mish and Maggie discuss inflation (given the wage component in the payroll report) and Bitcoin (given the looming deadline for ETF news), SPY – market outlook. Why small caps are important, Emerging markets - VNM Greece, Watching China 01-05-24
Business First AM Mish covers war, energy, food, and a pick of the day. 01-03-24
Final Bar with Dave Keller Stockcharts Small Caps, Retail and Junk, Why all 3 matter this year a lot! 01-02-24
BNN Bloomberg What is a Commodity SuperCycle Really? Mish goes over one interesting chart plus places to invest this year 01-02-24
Fox-Making Money with Charles Payne Cheryl Casone Hosting Mish covers volatile bitcoin and why EVs may not be such a great place to invest in right now 01-02-24
Singapore Breakfast Bites Mish talks about themes for 2024 to look for-and tells you where to focus, what to buy or avoid depending on economic and market conditions December 28, 2023
Charting Forward with Stockcharts and Dave Keller Mish sits down with 2 other market experts to help you prepare for 2024 with predictions, picks, and technical analysis. December 28, 2023
TheStreet.com with J.D. Durkin Mish gives you a quick snippet of the overall macro prediction for 2024 December 27, 2023
Coming Up:
January 22 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
January 24 Yahoo Finance
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 480 all-time highs 460 underlying support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 pivotal 180 major support
Dow (DIA) Needs to hold 370
Nasdaq (QQQ) 390 major support with 408 resistance
Regional banks (KRE) 47 support 55 resistance
Semiconductors (SMH) 160 major support and 170 now resistance to clear
Transportation (IYT) Needs to hold 250
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 pivotal support
Retail (XRT) 70 now key and pivotal
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