January 13, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
What is a confirmed Caution Phase?
Some of you might know it as a warning phase.
Simply put, it is when the 50-DMA remains above the 200-DMA but the price of the instrument trades below the 50-DMA.
Slope is another factor. When the price is below the 50-DMA but above the 200-DMA, we look at the slope on the 50-DMA.
The slope on the Daily chart continues to point up, making this a weak caution phase now. A downward slope on the MA would be more alarming.
Until the end of this week, the July calendar range is another interesting line. The horizontal green line on the Daily chart aligns with the current price of QQQ.
The $500 level thus far is turning out to be support.
But what happens if that level breaks?
That is when we zoom out and look at the weekly charts.
The QQQ chart on the weekly basis is still in a bullish phase.
While the 50-WMA is above the 200-WMA, and the price trades above both the MAs, that is a good sign.
Should QQQ fail 500, we can look at a target of around $473 or the 50-WMA.
Interestingly, QQQ has not traded below the 50-WMA since January 2023. That breakout turned out to be the best buy opportunity in the last 2 years.
Amazing that here we are, 2 years later and into the new calendar range.
We strongly believe that once the January Trend Trade is set, along with the Daily and weekly charts we see here for NASDAQ, the next direction will be very clear and offer a solid risk/reward.
A reminder from this past weekend’s Daily on the Macro:
What are some (macro) conclusions early on?
I was honored to be a part of the Money Show’s Annual Picks for 2025. A panel sat down with Mike Larson, Editor in Chief of the Money Show, to discuss value versus growth and our picks.
The free report Money Show’s favorite experts picks.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
Traders World Fintech Awards
-
-----Get your copy of
Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth
Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!
"I grew my money tree and so can you!"- Mish Schneider
Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Outlook 2025, the PDF This will set you up on the right side of the market along with many picks
Business First AM Having trouble making money so far? Mish explains the importance of the January Trend Trade 01-10-25
Real Vision Mish sits down with Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss many areas of the market and some picks 01-08-25
Money Show Podcast Panel offering you their top picks for 2025 and why 01-08-25
Business First AM A sleeper trade and oldie is now on Mish’s radar 01-10-25
Schwab TV with Diane King Hall Stock Picks 01-03-25
Fox Business Mish sits with Ash Webster to discuss headwinds and how to navigate them 12-26-24
Coming Up:
January 13, 27 Podcast
January 15 BNN Bloomberg
January 15 Maggie Lake
Weekly: Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) Possible mean reversion if it can retake 580
Russell 2000 (IWM) 200-DMA at 215 holding so far
Dow (DIA) Like it if it can hold 421
Nasdaq (QQQ) 500 key area to hold
Regional banks (KRE) Under 55 we get concerned. Over 60, relax
Semiconductors (SMH) 237 is our big line in the sand
Transportation (IYT) While under resistance at 70, still holding-watch this
Biotechnology (IBB) its 130 or bust
Retail (XRT) Has to hold around 76
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 78.00 key area to hold
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: