August 28, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Yes an Accumulation day in volume and an impressive bounce after the Bernanke speech. But, could not take out last Thursdays' high and closed slightly above the adaptive moving average and below 120.08, the barometer closing price the week the US was downgraded. The FTP is stacked negative for Monday and after it failed to get through R1, suggests that the market is still vulnerable and in a trading range (albeit wide) between 112 and 120. And what happens if the trading range breaks to the upside? Major resistance at 125.50 and then 127. What happens if the trading range breaks to the downside? No major support until 101.00.
DIA Similar scenario.
QQQ Finally filled that gap and stopped exactly at the adaptive moving average with Friday's high 53.31. Discouraging as well is that it could not muster an Accumulation day in volume. There is a bullish engulfing pattern and positive pivots, which suggest that in order for this rally to sustain the leaders (AAPL ALXN DLTR HANS) have to continue to do just that, lead. If QQQ gaps higher it will be compelling to follow that to its next resistance at 55.00. But, if it comes in lower and takes out 52.30 area, watch for an up channel that breaks down under 51.65 level. Then next stop 45.00
IWM over 70.25 is encouraging. Otherwise, 68.16 is the negatively stacked FTP level to hold or looks vulnerable as well.
ETFs:
GLD Bought at 175.00. Expect it to hold 175.60 area to stay firm and under 173.65 begins to look more vulnerable (although still very much in a bullish phase) Through 178.30, next target 182.40.
SLV 39.50 now support to hold and must clear 40.86 to continue the move up.
USO With Libya in the news, the oil market did not perform as well as the market did last week. At this point, will enter if rallies and closes above 33.54. Otherwise, negative trend still intact.
SMH Holding the 200 weekly moving average. Established trading range in the last 2 weeks of 28.75 high to 27.29 low. Over the high of the range will see what happens at 30.00 resistance. Under the low of the range, next stop 25.00.
IBB One of the most promising sectors. Bullish engulfing pattern, neutral pivots at 90.85 area. Possible could rally to 98.00 if market stays strong.
XRT Another of the stronger sectors, in a range between 48.00 and 44.00.
XLF Another important element to next major direction. Over 13.35 could see a big move to 15.50 area. But, under 12.00, last year's low was 6.00.
TLT New long Friday at 108.40. Trend still strong. Watching TBT, over 25.43 would exit TLT long and reverse.
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