They Really Are A Scream

July 7, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

The Addams Family Lyrics by: Vic Mizzy

They Really Are a Scream

The Addams Family Lyrics by: Vic Mizzy

They're creepy and they're kooky,
Mysterious and spooky,
They're all together ooky,
The Modern Family.

Short and sweet, let’s begin with Granddad Russell 2000. Named as such since breaking out over a yearlong consolidation from 2014. It began the move this year over 120. It peaked out in Mid-June and on this Tuesday, seemingly reached its nadir close to the May lows and far away from the 2015 lows. Volume merited blow off with one more push over 124.70 needed to be convincing.

Grandma Retail (XRT), similarly to IWM, took out a yearlong consolidation from 2014 at 90.00 and peaked in April at 202.50. Has looked most likely to hold the May lows and now, a close over 100 keeps it in very good shape.

Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE) over 40.00 took out its yearlong consolidation form 2014 and peaked in June at 45.62. Currently, with pressure of the overall market, tested the 50 DMA and held. 44.00 a pivotal area to clear for this one to continue its prodigal status.

Big Bro Biotechnology so designated since he, like a good big brother should, rallies when the rest of the family goes into despair. IBB has traded above the 50 DMA since early May. Now, over 375, may not make new highs, but will definitely raise the spirits of his kinfolk.

Semiconductors (SMH) never needed to lead since that mission was accomplished beginning in 2012. However, trading now under the 200 DMA for the first time since October 2014, Semis either have to get back over 54.54 quickly or the takeaway will be more chop at best and possibly a bigger correction for everyone else.

Finally, Transportation (IYT) has ignored the hard work of the rest of the family, failing since February 2015. Trannies on a longer timeframe view, fell to a significant monthly moving average and now, after putting in a new yearly low early Tuesday, could have bottomed at last. 148 remains resistance to clear, so for now, thinking that’s doable if it holds above 145 for the remainder of this week.

And there you have it-the temporary nature of existence as witnessed through the representatives of our key index and sectors.

So get a witches shawl on
A broomstick you can crawl on
We're gonna pay a call on
The Modern Family.

S&P 500 (SPY) Holding the 200 DMA which of course it has to continue to do. Cleared 208 so unless this breaks down under the 200 DMA again, worst could be over.

Dow (DIA) Back over the 200 DMA and like SPY, should stay above for the market to remain healthy. 176.75 pivotal and over 178.20 better

Nasdaq (QQQ) New 60+ day low with nearly double the average volume. Now, over 108.25 better and if sees 106 again it will most likely visit the 200 DMA thereafter

XLF (Financials) A perfect test and hold of the 200 DMA. Over 24.75 back in business

KRE (Regional Banks) 43.05 pivotal

SMH (Semiconductors) Double the average volume here.

IYT (Transportation) Mentioned on Monday night that a game changer would be a move and hold over 146.40

IBB (Biotechnology) 361 support and over 375 hard to argue with

XRT (Retail) 96.00 underlying support and over 100 this will have new life

IYR (Real Estate) 74.72 the 50 DMA resistance overhead

XHB (US HomeBuilders) Held support and now over 37.00 even better

GLD (Gold Trust) Held 2015 lows, best we can say for now-that and had great volume

USO (US Oil Fund) If short under 19.00, Tuesday’s big volume reversal could mean the end of the selloff. Over 18.11 looks better

OIH (Oil Services) Another possible huge volume reversal pattern

XLE (Energy) Similar to OIH