This One Small Cap Signal Could Move the Whole Market

February 22, 2026

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Small caps and why they may decide the market’s next big move.

Right now, small caps are showing clear leadership.

While the S&P 500 continues to struggle to reclaim its 50-day moving average and the NASDAQ remains well below that key level, the Russell 2000 — tracked by IWM — is holding its 50-DMA and remains in a bullish phase.

Leadership from small caps often signals broader economic confidence, making this development especially important for traders and investors watching overall market direction.

However, beneath the surface there’s a developing divergence.

Momentum in IWM is declining and has already slipped below its own 50-day moving average, even as price holds firm.

This creates a classic technical setup where momentum could precede price.

When momentum weakens ahead of price, it can serve as an early warning that leadership may be vulnerable unless price action confirms renewed strength.

This puts small caps at the center of the market’s next move.
If IWM can maintain its bullish price structure and momentum turns back up, it would support continued risk appetite and potentially help lift the broader indexes. But if price begins to confirm the weakening momentum, it could signal increasing risk across equities regardless of headlines or macro narratives.

Bottom line:
The next directional move in the market may well depend on what small caps do from here. Leadership, confirmation, and momentum alignment will be key signals to watch

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But if price begins to confirm the weakening momentum, it could signal increasing risk across equities regardless of headlines or macro narratives.

Bottom line:
The next directional move in the market may well depend on what small caps do from here.

Leadership, confirmation, and momentum alignment will be key signals to watch

.
Video

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