September 18, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I invite you to listen to the podcast I did with Jeffrey Hirsch (Trader’s Almanac) as we cover a lot about seasonality and the current bull market.
In November 2021, IWM reached an all-time high at 244.46.
In November 2024, IWM reached 244.98.
Thursday September 18th high is 245.14.
Triple tops or a launchpad?
For starters, we would like to see a monthly close over 243.50 to sustain a bullish bias.
Secondly, in my Economic Modern Family, Granny Retail and Small Caps are a thing-married to each other.
Makes sense right?
You need a strong consumer because of good wages and labor market to have sustained growth in US centric companies.
Retail remains a huge laggard in spite of the 2025 highs
XRT us 30% away from the 2021 highs-why?
Of course, there are always caveats to watch for in every market condition.
Tates rose and did not fall after the FOMC.
The dollar firmed on a potential double bottom.
Geopolitics remain a concern.
Silver gained some traction versus gold-inflationary if continues.
More..
On the chart, you see several ellipses.
The first 2 on top show the all-time highs of 2024 and 2025.
There's your potential tops or launchpad.
Below, the Leadership indicator shows that IWM is now outperforming the SPY.
That’s a good thing for small caps.
On the bottom is our Real Motion indicator.
The red dots cleared the Bollinger Band showing strong momentum on this move. It needs to stay above the BB however.
There’s not much ere to support any kind of bearish case.
Nonetheless, price action tells us all..
Watch the caveats but have fun for now!
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
Limited offer.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
WealthWise Podcast Mish and Jeff talk bullish trends, caveats, the dollar bottoming and picks 09-17-25
BFMRadio 89.9 Singapore Mish talks the how the Fed's rate cut will boost small and mid caps plus gold 09-17-25
Coming Up:
September 19 Investor Business daily
September 22 Schwab Network 8:40 AM ET
Weekly podcast and appearances on Business First AM
October 20-22 Mish will be in studio in NYC! Stay tuned.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 655 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 238 close support
Dow (DIA) 459 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 585 support
Regional banks (KRE) Nice up day with 70 next hurdle
Semiconductors (SMH) 304 support
Transportation (IYT) This is our weak link not even over the July range. Watch 73.50 to clear 69.50 to hold
Biotechnology (IBB) 140 pivotal
Retail (XRT) 87 support
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cleared 117k-so could see a run to the 125k resistance
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
