April 5, 2026
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Resiliency Is the Headline
Thursday’s market action can be summed up in one word: resiliency.
Granddad Russell 2000, represented by IWM, held its 200-day moving average, showing surprising strength in small caps.
This matters.
Small caps are often a barometer for:
Holding the 200-day moving average suggests that, despite uncertainty, the market is not ready to roll over just yet.
Transportation: A Growing Mystery
Transportation IYT, however, is telling a more puzzling story.
Despite:
The transportation sector (IYT) continues to hold its ground.
Historically, higher energy costs tend to pressure this sector.
Yet for now, transportation is not confirming weakness.
This divergence raises a key question:
➡ Is the market more resilient than expected?
➡ Or has the impact of higher costs simply not been felt yet?
The Bond Market: Still Holding Together
Meanwhile, the bond market remains steady.
Even with yields at elevated levels, the long bond has not broken down.
This underlying stability is important because:
For now, bonds are not signaling panic.
Which brings us to the most important player in this setup.
Granny Retail: Testing a Critical Floor
Granny Retail represented by XRT is approaching a key technical level.
The chart is now showing a potential triple bottom formation:
This is not just a pattern; it is a test of consumer resilience.
Retail reflects behavior:
And right now, that behavior is sitting at a decision point.
The key level to watch is 77.
If this level holds:
Markets are forward-looking.
Holding support suggests confidence in future stability.
The Risk Scenario
But if 77 breaks:
This would shift the tone from resilience to caution — quickly.
Actionable Framework
Here’s how to approach it:
And most importantly:
➡ Watch the relationship between Granny Retail and Granddad Russell
Because together, they tell the story of:
Bottom Line
The market is holding together — for now.
Small caps are resilient.
Transportation is puzzling.
Bonds are stable.
But the real decision lies with the consumer.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
March 27 Yahoo Finance Trading Disparate Market Signals
March 31 NYSETV Mish talks with Kristen about watching price over headlines and what she sees
April 2 Financial Compass Signs to Follow and how to trade them
Coming Up:
April 10 FintechTV
April 9 Financial Compass
April 23 Pre Market Prep
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) Classic reversal if holds 645
Russell 2000 (IWM) Classic reversal if holds 242
Dow (DIA) Classic reversal if holds 455
Nasdaq (QQQ) Classic reversal if holds 560
Regional banks (KRE) 64 key number to hold
Semiconductors (SMH) 380 a good place for this to hold if good
Transportation (IYT) 73 now support
Biotechnology (IBB) 164 now support
Retail (XRT) Triple bottoms off of June and November 2025, and March 2026 lows?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 68k now pivotal resistance and 65k support
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
