Last Week's ETF Swing Trading Strategies Paid Off. Now, What's Up?

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As we anticipated, last Friday was a quiet day and a positive one. SPY confirmed a bullish phase closing above the 10 day moving average, but not the adaptive. There is a trendline that comes down from the highs which will cross over Friday's hi and the adaptive moving average thereby if we close there, confirming that at least for the near term, a bottom is in place.

QQQ still lagging, touching but unable to cross the 50 day moving average. Therefore, although SPY has a better chart formation, we must look to QQQ to not only cross and close above the 50 DMA but also fill a gap and then cross the adaptive moving average. The best we can say right now is we've held the last swing lows, got some decent volume last week which possibly confirms a bottom, but still not out of the woods since QQQ remains in a warning phase.

IWM closed above the 50 day moving average with an unconfirmed return to a bullish phase. If you recall last Thursday night I clarified that IWM has had only one accumulation day in volume. So two things must happen. First, we still need an up day with an accumulation of volume. And we will need two consecutive closes over the 50 day moving average.

DIA has an unconfirmed bullish phase and filled the gap before retreating and closing very close to the 50 DMA . As we know, SPY will not be enough to carry the whole market. Watch QQQ to tackle the 50 day moving average with good volume, IWM to stay above the 50 with some volume and ditto for DIA. In order for confidence to return fully to the market, all indexes must be lined up. Otherwise, the best we can say is that we're still experiencing mixed signals.

ETF's:

Featured Picks:  XRT and IYR continued to follow through last week after our entry very close to the swing low of this recent pullback to the 50 day moving average. Swing traders should remain in their positions using trailing stops and taking profits according to the swing trading rules. Mini swing traders got to profit target on Friday.

SMH although back in a bullish phase, has yet to fill the gap. Therefore this return is still questionable unless we continue and close above the adaptive moving average.

GLD had a perfect entry last Friday over the two minute opening range high. Closed up 1%. Now looking to see what happens up at the all-time high.

USO** had two inside days in a row closing just beneath the adaptive moving average.

OIH actually closed negative last Friday after it failed to get through its 50 day moving average.

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