January 17, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I don't know about you all, but for me, these types of days are really hard to deal with. I like to be "active", see volume, get follow through and after gaps, trade what we call Opening Range Reversals. But, in retrospect, these days happen for a reason. In the indexes and in many sectors/groups, we are tackling but not yet clearing or reversing from the October highs. So, of course it's tough! S&P 500 is just one example. Trying the October high intraday and closing beneath without failing-well, that is probably really bullish-but with super light volume-who wants to be overexposed on the long side? And, if you are leaning towards the "market is tired" sentiment-the phase right now is positive-it would be awfully hard to overindulge in the "fade the market" as well.
S &P 500 (SPY) Closed just under the 10/27 high in an accumulation phase with positive sloping moving averages and a longer term positive phase intact.
Russells 2000 (IWM) Still holding the 200 DMA and still struggling under the weekly moving average. Worth watching if fails 75.90. And at this point, needs to close above 77.00
NASDQ (QQQ) I'll see your breakaway gap and raise you another breakaway gap! And a doji day to boot. I see no reason to be anything but optimistic at this point. Only caveat-the nasty October high-HAS TO CLEAR! Some important earnings coming up.
ETFs:
GLD 161.65 point to clear. 159 point to break-in the middle-stay away.
XRT (Retail) Next direction remains unclear as it tested but could got cross the trendline from October highs.
XLF (Financials) 13.58 the price to hold for the gap to remain intact. Considering the round of earnings forthcoming, if it does, will take that as a positive sign for this sector. If gaps lower leaves a possible top against the 200 DMA in place (2 days to confirm that) than the October 27th and January 12th highs begin to look like ominous signals of a double top.
IYR (Real Estate) Barely cleared 57.89. Now want to see 57.75 hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) Here to remind you.
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day. Holding the breakaway gap. Under 31.34 not a good sign, but if holds here, remains a great potential.
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