Why We are Focusing on Commodities Over Equities

May 10, 2022

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


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Written by Forrest Crist-Ruiz

Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) outperformed the other indexes ending the day +1.20%, while other major indices closed roughly flat on the day.

From the momentum side, our Real Motion (RM) indicator is flirting with the lower band.

This can be seen circled in the above chart.

If QQQ can clear the band, this could be a setup for a mean reversion type of trade.

While this does present an opportunity from an oversold basis, the next problem is overhead resistance in a down-trending market.

We have already seen how easily the market can attempt a rally, only to flip and break lower the next day.

With so much overhead resistance taking long trades in equities is especially risky.

Therefore, we plan to focus on commodities and put most equities on the back burner.

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Two commodities we are currently watching are sugar (CANE) and gold (GLD).

Each is sitting on support from the 200-Day moving average.

However, simply holding support is not a great reason to take a trade.

They need to show they are capable of trending upwards or show a proper reversal chart pattern.

Again, we can look at the momentum indicator for signals.

In CANE, RM is nearing the lower band.

If the band is tested/broken, we could look for RM to re-enter the band for another mean reversion trade.

On the other hand, GLD has not only broken the band but also broken through the 200-MA on RM.

If GLD can hold the 200-DMA in price, we can watch for RM to clear its 200-MA to confirm that price and RM agree.

While these can be great symbols to trade, timing our entries in a volatile market makes all the difference.

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 S&P 500 (SPY) Resistance at 410.  Watching to hold current price area.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 182 resistance.

Dow (DIA) 322 pivotal.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 309-317 resistance.

KRE (Regional Banks) 63 to clear and hold.

SMH (Semiconductors) 237 to clear.

IYT (Transportation) 239 resistance.

IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day.

XRT (Retail) 70 resistance.

GLD (Gold) 200-DMA support area.

USO (oil) 71.30 next support area.

DBA (Agriculture) Inside day.

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