May 19, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
From The Bald Man and the Fly
Turnaround Monday but selectively, concentrated in certain NASDAQ stocks such as TSLA, NFLX, TRIP advisor to name a few.
NASDAQ itself breached the 50 DMA to close with an unconfirmed bullish phase. Anxiety certainly dissipates when the leaders that have been hammered begin to come back to life.
The TLTs came off their highs again on relatively light volume. More importantly for those watching for a reversal, TLTs tested a major overhead monthly moving average and retreated. Not enough information for confirming that the 3rd and perhaps more significant top is in, but certainly enough to take notice.
The test will be how well the big guns hold up. So far, the pattern has been sell strength, buy weakness with a 1-2 day follow through at best.
With Federal Reserve minutes up Wednesday and an expected slack off in volume ahead of a long holiday weekend, I suspect the bulls will be satisfied with NASDAQ making headway from the current price and the 50 DMA along with the small caps taking and leaving the 200 DMA in the dust.
S&P 500 (SPY) A move and hold over 188.79 even better with 186.50 the absolute line in the sand.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Besides the perma bears, who doesn’t want to see this take out and hold 111.35?
Dow (DIA) In the perverse logic universe, this underperforming is a relief-provided it holds up
Nasdaq (QQQ) A hold and close above 88.61 will be a first since early April. Otherwise, 97.40 big area of support to hold
XLF (Financials) Still a bit far from the 50 DMA to get excited
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared the 50 DMA now has to clear 45.03 then 45.50
IYT (Transportation) new highs which helped-also hope the heads up on Friday’s volume surge helped my readers
XRT (Retail) Cleared the 200 DMA and trying for the 50 DMA so if stays there maybe finally the worst is over
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day
GLD Even with a decent range, still just chopping around sideways near all the moving averages so keep looking
USO (US Oil Fund) If this can fill the gap to 37.55 and continue looks really good
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs higher highs and higher lows. I will keep watching for the final frontier for low rates
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