Position Updates & Gauges For Trading on 11/17/2016

Mish Schneider | November 17, 2016

***Note: Raise stop in GWPH to 119.74-or a trailing stop


New Position: DBA: Long at 20.16 ATR: .16

Name of Instrument: PwrShs DB Ag Fd

Current Price: 20.07

Reason For Trade: Probably our third time buying this near the lows in 2016. From a technical standpoint, we wanted to get the risk within 4 ATRs of the 2016 low at 19.55 so we entered a bit early. However, from a long viewpoint, the momentum has shifted positive before the price has. Inflation numbers are rising. After a protracted bear market, like that of copper’s, rising inflation will help this ETF. The intention is to hold this against the 2016 lows for a swing position. That means that our first target at 21.44 is reasonable as that is where it traded in July. However, it is also a major breakout on the weekly and monthly charts. That makes the risk reward potential worth it. If we do anything to cut the risk, it would be to raise the stop to under 19.86 the October 3rd low. So, we have leverage.

Sell Stop: 19.49

First Profit Target: Sell ½ at 21.44 (market if touched)

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Existing Position: GREK: Long 7.27 ATR: .12

Name of Instrument: Global X MSCI Greece ETF

Current Price: 7.39

Reason For Trade: Our second trade after scratching the first one, this is a potential growth ETF I believe is worth the slightly revised risk/reward ratio. Fundamentally, statements have emerged that there will not be a Grexit. The monetary issues have not been resolved, but are well in the market at this point. Any good news that emerges, a move and close again over 9.00 will be bullish with a possible target of around 11.00.

Sell Stop: 6.87

First Target: Sell ½ at 8.04 (MIT)

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Existing Position: FCX: Long Tail at 10.60 ATR: .48

Name of Instrument: Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Current Price: 13.80

Reason For Trade: In a bullish phase, it reported on October 25th. The report was mixed as it was better revenue than last year but lower than what the street expected. Technically, it is over the 50-week moving average and could be basing out. Our target is below the August peak high making the risk/reward to the recent lows solid. We bought it on an opening range reversal pattern. One we can tighten risk on should it fail to hold recent gains.

Trailing Stop: 12.74

First Profit Target: Sold 1/3 at 12.03 ahead of original target

***REACHED! Second Profit Target: Sell 1/3 at: 12.97 (MIT)

Third Profit Target: Sell ½ or remaining balance 14.03 (Market if Touched)

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Existing Position: GWPH: Long ½ at 118.37 ATR: 4.27

Name of Instrument: GW Pharmaceuticals Plc

Current Price: 129.23

Reason For Trade: Buying this on a dip above the gap it made on September 26th and above the 50 DMA which our stop is just below. Fundamentals are solid as this is a premier medical marijuana stock. It was upgraded by Goldman Sachs and immediately sold off to give us this better buy opportunity. Should California pass marijuana laws on election day, that should give this a boost. It reports earnings on December 5th. We can use some flexibility on the stop loss as well should it fail to move up from here over the next week.

***Raised Trailing Stop: 119.74

First Profit Target: Take off ½ at 137.74 (MIT)

Small Loss: took of ½ at 111.40

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