Active Investing Edge Mentoring for August 19, 2026

August 19, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

TITLE: Treasury Bond Support, The Ten-Day Moving Average Head Fake, and Semiconductor Confirmation (08-19-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff analyzed a market reacting to the Treasury’s plan to increase funding for long-duration Treasury buybacks, using TLT as the key instrument for judging whether bond prices could stabilize and support stocks. He explained that the announcement might act like a rate cut, but warned that equities did not have a free pass back to new highs. Geoff demonstrated a head-fake framework for indexes that closed below their 10-day moving averages: traders should watch pivots, opening-range breakouts or breakdowns, VWAP, and continuation before entering or exiting. He emphasized that semiconductors and SMH were the main source of weakness, while equal-weight stocks, financials, healthcare, energy, gold, and parts of the broader market held up better. Geoff also reviewed Moderna, Merck, Amazon, NVIDIA, CrowdStrike, and other positions, stressing confirmation, position sizing, tightened stops, and patience after sharp earnings-driven moves.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Treasury Support and the Bond Market: Geoff explained how increased Treasury funding for long-duration bond buybacks could lift TLT, lower rates, and support stocks, while emphasizing that traders still needed confirmation rather than assuming an immediate return to new highs.
  2. [00:13:28] Biotech News and Earnings Reactions: Geoff reviewed Moderna’s strong Phase 3 cancer-trial news, Merck’s related strength, and potential effects on IBB, XBI, and healthcare. He also assessed Target, Home Depot, and Estee Lauder, favoring patience over buying immediate earnings gaps.
  3. [00:30:10] Semiconductor Leadership and Key Pivots: Geoff searched semiconductor leaders for actionable setups after semis led the prior decline. He highlighted Marvell’s correction and Google-related news while identifying yesterday’s close as a practical pivot and warning against a fresh low.
  4. [00:41:45] Intermarket Confirmation Across Sectors: Geoff compared TLT, SPY, QQQ, SMH, RSP, IWM, and sector ETFs to determine whether bond strength was translating into broad equity support. He noted that semiconductors were rejecting the favorable rate backdrop while other groups held up.
  5. [00:55:53] Calendar Ranges and Market Context: Geoff used July calendar ranges to explain why Moderna’s news had greater impact on a healthcare group already in a bullish position. He also reviewed gold, financials, industrials, materials, utilities, and rate-sensitive sectors for continuation potential.
  6. [01:01:24] Opening-Range Divergence and SMH Reversal Levels: Geoff assessed divergent opening-range behavior in the Dow, SPY, QQQ, IWM, and RSP, then focused on SMH’s weakness. He required recovery above VWAP, yesterday’s low, and the opening-range levels before treating semis as a buyable reversal.
  7. [01:12:37] Position Management After Sharp Moves: Geoff reviewed Moderna, Merck, Home Depot, Johnson and Johnson, NVIDIA, and other opportunity stocks. He stressed avoiding extended entries, tightening stops after gains, and taking partial profits when Merck reached roughly five ATRs.
  8. [01:30:30] Amazon Setup and Final Market Plan: Geoff stopped out of CrowdStrike after its breakdown, remained patient with longer-term Dell, and established an Amazon plan using a close-and-continue opening-range breakout with position sizing. He concluded that SPY, the Dow, and RSP could lead if SMH held support.

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