Evening Watch List for May 22nd

Mish Schneider | May 21, 2012

It is very possible a short term bottom is in place. Many slingshot patterns have emerged with the volatility index (measurement of sentiment and fear) indicating a short-term buy on Monday.

S&P 500 (SPY) Troubling even after a new short term low and close on the highs is volume. Lighter than average and ineffectual in reversing the string of distribution days over the last few weeks. Subs: Held the 65 weekly moving average. Pivots positive, like to see 130.50 hold 133 clear

Russell 2000 (IWM) Back over the 200 DMA. Subs: Also back into the channel pointed out in today's video. We will look at a hold of the 200 DMA and follow through with the slingshot pattern in place

Dow (DIA) Like the others, low volume. Also like the others, still in strong warning phase. Subs: Like to see 124 hold

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) After the extreme oversold relative strength, good to see a bounce. Now, 61.85 pivotal. Subs: 63.20 the 10 DMA

ETFs:

GLD Holding the gap and last week's buy signal unless breaks under 153.10

XLF (Financials) Nice hold of the 200 DMA. Would like to see 14.40 clear

IBB (Biotechnology) Back into the unconfirmed bullish phase. Now has to clear the fast moving average and hold122.50

SMH (Semiconductors) Kind of another thorn since still below the 200 DMA

XRT (Retail) First one to break the previous day's highs. Still in strong warning phase, but the longer it holds here, the better

IYT (Transportation) 91.00 is where it broke down from. Now, has to clear it again

IYR (Real Estate) Weak warning phase which means as with the last rally, need to see some upward follow through

OIH (Oil Services) After insanely oversold, good run to the fast moving average. Bear phase still so a gap higher would be very positive

XLE (Energy) 64.45 new support and 66.05 resistance

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day Friday now a doji day. If TLT breaks Monday's low, a correction would be likely to 121.00

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move. Note: Besides the list of bullish phases, lots of slingshot patterns-will focus on a few of the best I see.

Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

N/A

Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

AMZN Since underperformed QQQ, must hold 217

COG Improved condition and cleared the 200 DMA improving phase although unconfirmed. 36.81 recent high has to clear

CERN Inside day. 76.85 good risk and has to clear 79.05 the 10 DMA

EQR Has to clear 10 DMA 62.23

GNC Ultimately has to clear 38.80 but like the reversal on this as well

SWI Been hard to pinpoint a buy, but overall chart continues to look very strong. Reversals preferred

EW Like to see 83.85 hold

TRIP Like to see 41.60 hold

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

ROST Max risk 59.55

Other: LGF (Not a condition) First close over 12.50. Will look for a reversal or clearance of last week's high. 12.15 max risk.
Slingshots
today. Risk S1, now positive pivots: EWZ F BRCM BIDU CHKP WYNN PAY

Shorts:

Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing trade Note: Titanic picks have positive pivots but did not clear R1 unless noted

TIF Cannot clear today's high

AGQ 41.85 the 10 DMA sloping. Now negative pivots.

ANF cannot clear 36.86

BTU Inside day cannot clear 24.98

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Bear Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows

GG Inside day. Cannot clear 35.86 Note: GLD declining 10 DMA slope and negative pivots

OXY Inside day. Cannot clear 81.34

Goodnight!