April 26, 2026
Weekly Market Outlook
By Geoff Bysshe
Last week’s extraordinary earnings announcement from Intel rhymed with the NVDA earnings announcement that grabbed the investing world’s attention in 2023.
On May 25, 2023, NVDA’s stock jumped 24% on 240% higher than average volume on an earnings announcement that reported quarterly EPS and revenues DOWN 20% and 13% YoY, respectively.
Furthermore, the report marked its fourth consecutive quarter of YoY earnings declines.
Remarkably, this gap higher wasn’t a bounce from a 52-week low; it was already at a 52-week high, and this news vaulted to an all-time high as shown in the chart below.
What Changed for NVDA?
The “growth story” that savvy investors had been watching for a year was now made obvious by this earnings report, and it grabbed the attention of the investing world for NVDA in a way that every investor who would like to catch the next NVDA should study.
Intel is unlikely to become the next NVDA, but the market’s message suggests much higher prices for Intel and for two other stocks in the same segment of the semiconductor industry.
The “E” in PRIME
In last week’s Market Outlook, “Don’t Confuse Market Confidence With Complacency”, one of the main themes was that “A Confident Bull Market Doesn’t Wait For The Fundamentals To Be Obvious.”
Intel (INTC), with NVDA as its example, is a demonstration of how this concept plays out at the stock level.
In the April 5th Market Outlook, “Watch Out! Last Week Was Different. Space Stock (SATL) Takes Off, and Energy Stocks Fall”, we explained how the PRIME Framework for selecting great growth stocks works.
This week, we’re going to focus on the power of using the “E” in PRIME to identify companies that have an extraordinary potential to become great stocks.
Intel Earnings Report Confirms Another AI Driven Gold Mine Segment In Semiconductors
“E” represents a condition of “expectations for extraordinary growth,” which is also referred to as the “growth story.”
In the case of NVDA, the growth story was centered on its unique position in the evolving AI industry.
Intel, on the other hand, has just provided solid evidence that the growth story driving its stock price will also drive two other stocks in the same semiconductor segment.
The “E” in PRIME
In last week’s Market Outlook, “Don’t Confuse Market Confidence With Complacency”, one of the main themes was that “A Confident Bull Market Doesn’t Wait For The Fundamentals To Be Obvious.”
Intel (INTC), with NVDA as its example, is a demonstration of how this concept plays out at the stock level.
In the April 5th Market Outlook, “Watch Out! Last Week Was Different. Space Stock (SATL) Takes Off, and Energy Stocks Fall”, we explained how the PRIME Framework for selecting great growth stocks works.
This week, we’re going to focus on the power of using the “E” in PRIME to identify companies that have an extraordinary potential to become great stocks.
Intel Earnings Report Confirms Another AI Driven Gold Mine Segment In Semiconductors
“E” represents a condition of “expectations for extraordinary growth,” which is also referred to as the “growth story.”
In the case of NVDA, the growth story was very focused on NVDA’s unique position in the evolving AI industry.
Intel, on the other hand, has just provided solid evidence that the growth story driving its stock price will also drive two other stocks in the same semiconductor segment.
The similarity between the companies was a transition in the business that was developing into explosive growth prospects in the very near term. In fact, the growth was already underway.
In NVDA’s case, it has spent 2022 suffering from a severe decline in chip sales to the crypto mining industry, which was in a bear market.
Fortunately, on November 30, 2022, OpenAI introduced ChatGPT to the public, enabling the average person to use AI LLM technology.
Then, on March 14, 2023 Anthropic launched Claude, its ChatGPT competitor, and on March 21, 2023 Google launched its competitive AI, Bard, which has been rebranded to Gemini.
The adoption of AI LLM models exploded with ChatGPT alone reaching 100 million monthly active users by January 2023.
As a result, demand for the NVDA GPU’s that had plummeted from crypto companies was ramping up from data AI data centers. NVDA’s year-over-year comparisons didn’t show the growth, but the sequential quarterly numbers were ramping up.
This is one example of why it’s important to consider both YoY and sequential quarterly growth trends.
It was the sequential growth that was driving NVDA investors’ enthusiasm that had pushed the stock to 52-week highs in the 4 quarters leading up to the “big day.”
The big day, May 24th, earnings announcement provided guidance of $11 billion for the upcoming quarter, which would represent Nvidia's best quarter ever, surpassing its previous record by 33%.
The power of the “E”, the growth story, lies in its ability to explain future growth that will excite investors and justify higher prices and valuations for the stock.
One way to identify great “E” conditions is to keep your ears and eyes open for catalysts that have created sustainable change.
NVDA’s catalyst was the move from crypto to AI customers.
Intel’s Catalyst
Intel’s catalyst for a new growth story was a new CEO. When a struggling company changes its CEO, it’s worth keeping an eye on the stock over the next few quarters.
Lip-Bu Tan was announced to become the new CEO on March 12, 2025, after Intel had spent years floundering under the prior CEO’s attempt to turn it around.
As you can see from the chart below, the immediate response was enthusiastic, but investors remained skeptical, and the stock returned to its 25-year low. Despite a bounce from the lows, the first earnings report led to a 8% drop in the stock.
In this article, we’re focused on the “E” in PRIME, but the other indicators were also suggesting a bottom was being put in. Most notably, the pattern in the top Real Motion momentum chart (the “M”), where the red dots held over its 200-day MA (green) while price made a new low for the move, is a bullish base formation that suggests the momentum will carry the next base breakout higher.
The base breakout occurred with the added bonus of the government buying 9% of INTC. The stock’s historic move was underway.
You Don’t Need To Be A Trained Analyst To Recognize a Good Growth Story.
You don’t need to be a sophisticated analyst to recognize that a high-profile company bringing in a new leader is a moment to pay attention. It simply tells you, “This is a stock where the story might change.”
Very quickly, the Intel narrative did change. Instead of centering the story on massive, long-dated manufacturing bets, Tan steered attention toward the parts of Intel that were already in motion: chips for AI-driven data centers and “AI PCs” that could ride the next upgrade cycle.
A headline-grabbing agreement with the U.S. government, including a large equity stake and direct support from President Trump, reinforced that Intel was now at the center of America’s chip strategy rather than a company trying to catch up.
The stock’s sharp move higher on that news wasn’t the whole thesis, but it was an important clue that investors believed this new story was real.
From there, the fundamentals started to do the talking. After 5 consecutive quarters of negative quarterly YoY EPS declines, quarterly EPS reports have been +150%, +15%, and Friday’s report was +123%. Plus, the estimates for the next 2 quarters are 304% and 14% and are likely to be revised higher.
The improvement in EPS growth lines up with the new growth narrative in AI and data-center demand.
Intel’s growth is driven by rising demand for CPUs. These are traditional semiconductors, and they are important for AI agent applications. This is the area of AI that has been exploding this year.
Industry analysts expect CPU demand to grow by 5-7% over the next 10 years as CPUs become more important in AI data centers.
This is not only good news for INTC, but it’s also good news for AMD and ARM, which also make CPUs.
As you can see from the charts of all three stocks below, AMD and ARM responded positively to the INTC news.
The green box highlights how all the PRIME technical indicators were also set up in bullish conditions.
ARM was particularly set up in that it had an additional catalyst. In its most recent earnings report on 3/25, it announced plans to start building its own CPUs.
AMD is potentially best positioned to lead and benefit from the resurgence in demand for CPUs.
When a growth story is not only confirmed by the price action of the stock, but also by other stocks in the industry, it’s a powerful indicator that you’re in the right place.
When you have a PRIME trend with a good growth story, your trades can have the wind at their back for a long time.
If You’d Like To Learn More About MarketGauge Strategies and Systems
If you'd like access to the MarketGauge indicators, strategies, automated trading models, and more, contact us.
Best wishes for your trading,
Geoff Bysshe
Co-Founder
(Connect on LinkedIn)
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 Every week we review the big picture of the market's technical condition as seen through the lens of our Big View data charts.
The bullets provide a quick summary organized by conditions we see as being risk-on, risk-off, or neutral. The video analysis dives deeper. |
Summary: Markets remain broadly risk-on with strong volume, bullish breadth, and leadership from tech pushing the QQQ to new highs, though short-term conditions are slightly overbought and momentum is uneven across indexes and styles. At the same time, mixed sector performance, cooling internals, and cross-asset indecision (rates, commodities, and global markets) suggest a more fragile backdrop beneath the surface strength.
Risk On
Neutral
1) Maintain core long exposure, but stop chasing
2) Focus on relative strength leadership
3) Buy setups, not headlines
4) Tighten risk management
5) Watch for rotation signals
6) Use confirmation triggers to press or pull back
7) Cross-asset tells
Every week you'll gain actionable insight with:
