A Market Begging for a Lime in the Coconut.

May 29, 2018

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

blankIt struck me as ironic that the song lyrics in the poster tell the story of a super useful and diverse fruit.

Ironic because it got me thinking how this song differs from the 1971 Coconut Song, famously used by Quentin Tarantino in the film Reservoir Dogs.

“She put the lime in the coconut, she drank 'em bot' up..
And said "doctor, ain't there nothin' I can take?"
I said "doctor, to relieve this belly ache"
I said "doctor, ain't there nothin' I can take?"
I said "doctor, to relieve this belly ache" 

So, here we are.

We have a market begging for a lime in the coconut.

Instead, we got a market that had many investors believe it was all useful like a coconut, with tough fibers and all.

The reality though, is that with today’s action, many investors are looking for some relief for their belly aches.

In Reservoir Dogs, the scene leading up to the song is gruesome.

The idea is that Harvey Keitel’s character tries to convince Tim Roth’s character, that after taking a bullet to the belly, he’ll be ok.

I’d like to give you the same level of optimism, or at the very least, give you hope by looking at the bigger picture as of right now.

Consider it a “put the lime in the coconut and drink ‘em both together” form of relief.

I look at two timeframes for phases. The daily and the weekly charts.

Both use a 50 and a 200 simple moving average.

The daily uses DMAs and the weekly WMAs.

I cannot tell you how well looking further out works for keeping perspective.

Currently, today’s carnage sent the Dow (DIA) into an unconfirmed warning phase on the daily chart.

On the weekly, although bulls wanted to see 245 hold, the better place to hold is for 236.50. That’s the 50 WMA.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) still leads. On the daily charts, the 50 DMA is way below today’s closing price.

On the weekly charts, the 50 WMA is nearly $11 away.

Even though the Dow and the Financials (XLF went into an unconfirmed distribution phase), show stress, IWM tells us that an elixir of limes and coconuts might work.

Looking at Transportation (IYT), the distance to the 50 DMA and WMA is about the same as IWM.

The biggest difference is that IYT had a confirmed topping candle last Friday. That means that a $19-20.00 move lower is not out of the question.

That makes the best support at 182.40 (50-WMA). However, we could see 178 and then a bounce back over 182.40.

Bottom line, that dump in IYT is not a given, but should be filed away as possible, especially if IWM cannot hold 160.30 area.

Since Semiconductors did so well at the end of last week, looking there, SMH, is like the Harvey Keitel of the market right now.

Holding all moving averages, and over the 10 DMA, should SMH hold 106.50 and get back over 108.50, then she’ll be singing to IWM, IYT, DIA and the Fins,

“Yes, you call me in the morning, you call me in the morning
I'll tell you what to do if you call me in the morning…”

S&P 500 (SPY) now, 270 resistance which will be healthier if it gets back above. The 50 DMA here is 266.85).

Russell 2000 (IWM) 162.35 now resistance to clear. 160 support then 158.13

Dow (DIA) 245 now the resistance to get back through. Otherwise, we are looking at 240 next support

Nasdaq (QQQ) 168.70 is the 10 DMA and a good pivotal point as in above good below not so much

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