June 3, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
All indices except NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) changed phases from strong warning to distribution. We like a 2 day confirmation of phase changes, but more importantly is the break beneath the 200 DMA. Is it possible for this week to bring renewed life and a return back above that moving average? This is when we return to the 3 signs of a bottom. 1) Double the average volume on a big down day. 2) A big green candle with an accumulation in volume 3) Consolidation and break over resistance, again with decent volume. Until one of those scenarios play out, assume the market will trade lower and that meager rallies offer sell opportunities.
S&P 500 (SPY) 123.90 a key monthly moving average. 125 interim support. 129.55 initial resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) 70.00 the monthly moving average. 75.55 resistance at the 200 DMA
Dow (DIA) 122.35 the 200 DMA resistance. Now negative for 2012.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 59.75 the 200 DMA as this is the one index that if has any chance of recovering from here, should be the first one to watch. Remains in a strong warning phase.
ETFs:
GLD After the gap up, the possibility of that double bottom I wrote about last week seems more probable. The 50 DMA stopped the rally for now. But over 158, assume it will continue, and unless it breaks under 155, assume dips are buy opportunities.
XLF (Financials) It was sad to say goodbye to the 200 DMA. But is it farewell? 13.76 is the resistance area with 13.38 the 2012 low to note
IBB (Biotechnology) 116.43 April low. Oversold on the daily relative strength index. Another good one to watch for any signs of relief
SMH (Semiconductors) 28.60 next support
XRT (Retail) Another one like QQQ, in strong warning and a key to any signs of a rally
IYR (Real Estate)* Closed right on April low. Higher open, could see return to 61.00. A lower open and 58.00 next support
USO (US Oil Fund) 30.93 2010 low. 29.10 the 2011 low. Plus this is very oversold.
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