March 22, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The resiliency of the market in the face of a lot of negativity is one not to be dismissed. Got a couple of head's up on piling up long this week with first the Dow (DIA), then the NASDAQ (QQQ)-both technical formations featured here. But, when relative strength goes overbought, smart money takes profits and trails up stops to protect profits. Does that mean the phase has changed?
NASDAQ (QQQ) After Wednesday's new high and close on intraday lows, today left no gaps nor much in the way of alleviating overbought conditions. So that means one of three things: 1. the leaders will continue (AAPL, I mean you), 2. Another day of nastiness in store with the fast moving average threatened 3. Not much of a trading day at all with more of a time heals all wounds situation.
S&P 500 (SPY) It broke 140 and the fast moving average, ending with a DOJI. 138.09 the low of the gap from 3/13. Looking at that level to hold
The Dow (DIA) Tweeted that DIA was oversold now and holding that 3/13 low to the tick. I'll be looking at this as the one who told us to be caution and perhaps the first one to tell us to get back in the pool.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Got a third correction day and broke the fast moving average. But back over today's high should be a good end to the week.
ETFs:
GLD Tested 158 and rallied from there. If cannot close above 160, will most likely mean breaking 158 is inevitable
XLF (Financials) Better correction. If 15.50 holds good sign. Otherwise, will expect more with a move down to 14.80 a really good reason to get long
IBB (Biotechnology) Digesting while going sideways-strongest sector
SMH (Semiconductors) Still like this sector.
IYT (Transportation) FedEx weakened this group today
IYR (Real Estate) After a second Inside day, following the way the range broke got you short or at least out of your longs.
XLE (Energy) Been writing about the weakness in this all weak. Warning phase now which means perhaps too late to sell, but no reason to get long either.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Waited for 20.35 but instead bought at 20.45.
For more detailed analysis join me, along with hundreds of other subscribers, at Mish's Market Minute and get my daily trade picks, trade alerts, training videos, and exclusive analysis tools. Sign up for Mish's Market Minute now and get a free 2 week trial!
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: