March 18, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Quote by Ralph Waldo Emerson
As I did my research on stock setups, it seems that the move to the downside in the current bull phase has more correcting to do. The island top confirmed in S&P 500. The last time that happened was on July 7, 2011. SPY broke the 10 DMA and could not hold above Friday's low. Therefore, unless we see the SPY clear today's high and keep going, the trip to the 50 DMA would keep the phase intact, but do more damage while providing the patient with a good low risk buy opportunity.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Better looking since it held the fast moving average. Over today's high would be positive, but under the moving average, would really not want to be holding too much on the long side
Dow (DIA) Although looking better than most, it seems more likely to see 141.50 before it sees new highs
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Closed above 68.00 mainly due to AAPL's rally. As the one index closest to the 50 DMA, 67.50, ironically, may be the one to go to first if can clear today's high
ETFs:
GLD 156 is good resistance and now, under 153.50 is the place to look for a new short
XLF (Financials) Hanging onto the fast moving average, but looks like for dear and vulnerable life.
IBB (Biotechnology) Could drop to 148 and still hold phase. Right here, looking heavy with market.
SMH (Semiconductors): 34.70 is the next support level. Subs: Possible we can see this break the 50 DMA yet hold around 34.50. Aside for now
XRT (Retail) Best looking one besides transportation. Question is can it hold if the market continues south.
IYT (Transportation) Would feel a lot better if this can move back to108 then hold there for a new and less riskier buy opportunity.
IYR (Real Estate) Possible top on 03/06.
USO (US Oil Fund) Range expansion day and holding the 200 DMA.
OIH (Oil Services) If holds the 50 DMA could still be an interesting basing setup
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Landed on the 50 DMA and needs to hold here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) As one of my favorite sectors this year, now stalled at the top of a trendline going back to 2008.
XHB (Homebuilders) Still has to clear 30.00
UUP (Dollar Bull) We are back to watching this clear the 200 weekly moving average.
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