April 17, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
An inside day-or a trading range within the range of Monday's big red day, was not only anticipated, but also a repeat of the pattern I wrote about that occurred on February 25th. Therefore, as a pattern to be respected, particularly in the 3 indexes that are still holding a bullish pattern (S&P 500, NASDAQ and the Dow), that makes Wednesday's trading range possibly the most decisive of the week. But, we cannot forget about 3 other trading events thus far-how gold, interest rates and small caps fared. All 3 of those instruments also had inside day trading ranges. In fact, most of the ETF sectors did the same, traded inside Monday's range. As trend followers, we take that as a bullish sign for the indexes and sectors still holding above their 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages.
Our Day Trading Live Results Today:
Long CREE +2.2%, INTC +1.2%, Short APA +1.2%, RIG 0%, IWM - .5% TOTAL GAIN: +4.1%
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. Volume above average but not as much as yesterday's. Crossed the fast moving average. Unless this falls apart tomorrow, looks like Monday gave buyers a new opportunity.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day but remains it the warning phase, now confirmed. That means really want to see this cross back over the 50 DMA or not out of the woods.
Dow (DIA) Crossed back over the 146.50 level. Inside day. Still best shot of making new highs with IBM reporting April 18th.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day. Held 69.00. GOOG reports this week. Through 70.00 should bring renewed buying just as under 68, renewed selling
ETFs:
GLD After an inside day, the question of whether or not Monday's humongous volume indicated a blow off, especially considering 130 support on the weekly charts, or just a pause before another leg down remains. Good one to follow the range either way. For the record, even if gold runs, expect a move to fill the gap from Friday for now.
XLF (Financials) Inside day. Held the bullish phase, the fast moving average and now over 18.40 should continue its journey. Under 18.00 not.
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day as well. Wasn't the biggest gainer of the sectors, but certainly right up there after commenting last night that this is a great place to go if market firms. Has to clear 169.35
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed return to bullish phase. Through 35.50 should be good for a test of 2012 highs and beyond.
XRT (Retail) Narrow range and inside day in its bull phase. A good one to watch for overall health of market
IYT (Transportation) Another one with an inside day under the 50 DMA for the continued warning phase.
IYR (Real Estate) Also an inside day here. Seems tomorrow will be key in all areas
USO (US Oil Fund) Possible slingshot low. Needs to get back over 32.00 to confirm
OIH (Oil Services) After moving to the 200 DMA, had an inside day. Some big names report end of this week
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside doji day.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) On the 200 DMA and trying to bounce with an inside day here as well
XHB (Homebuilders) Can you guess what type of day it was? Yes, an inside day.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Dropped to the 200 DMA today.
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