June 16, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
On Sunday, I wrote the playbook for the Economic Modern Family
I have also written a lot about hard assets-uranium (flying), silver (holding), oil (consolidating) and natural gas (basing).
I also noted that soybeans were starting break out last week.
Now I turn my attention to DBA, the ETF of agricultural and soft commodities.
With CPI PPI showing inflation going down, I wish I could say the same for this chart!
I show 2 charts of DBA-the Daily and the Weekly timeframes.
On the Daily, the phase is bullish as the 50-DMA sits above the 200-DMA and the price is above both MAs. (PHASE)
DBA cleared the January 6-month calendar range. (TODAY)
Time to strike?
While it’s not outperforming SPY, nor has it since late April, we have something to watch for.
And momentum is in a bearish divergence with the moving averages not stacked. Plus, the red dots have t0 to clear the 50-DMA (blue).
On the weekly charts, the price has been consolidating since the April flush.
The phase is bullish and has been since January 2024. That is why I find the bearish calls so out of touch.
While momentum has waned along with leadership-given the current volatility in the markets, the seasonal potential weather disruption and the global conflicts, we are watching.
What we want to see
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
Business First AM All About Rivian 06-16-25
Business First AM War, tariffs, the Fed and Vanity-all factors 06-13-25
Weibo China Keep your eyes on silver too 06-12-25
WeiBo China Can gold prices go higher this year? 06-11-25
Yahoo Finance Why Consumer Sector Still on the Radar 06-10-25
Business First AM The domino impact of diet drugs is just beginning 06-10-25
Podcast Geoff Mish and Geoff talk underperformers and what could make them move. 06-09-25
Maggie Lake Macro to micro-we cover it all! 06-09-25
Coming Up:
June 17 CNA TV Singapore
July 9 Investor’s Business Daily
July 10 STLForex Nairobi
July 17 CFN webinar
Weekly podcast and appearances on Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 600 so pivotal
Russell 2000 (IWM) 215 resistance 210 pivotal support
Dow (DIA) 425 now pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) 528 support
Regional banks (KRE) 55 support 60 resistance
Semiconductors (SMH) 260 pivotal
Transportation (IYT) 68 resistance 64 support
Biotechnology (IBB) 123 support 130 resistance
Retail (XRT) 75.50 support 77 now pivotal resistance
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 107 pivotal support
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