November 29, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Crazy perfect gap fill from last week's pre-Thanksgiving jump, testing the 200 DMA and then roaring to close over key resistance in the S&P 500. Since I like to speak in phases, the most significant phase development was in NASDAQ which improved from a distribution to a warning phase, first time since November 5th. Also possibly significant is that the DOW (DIA) remained in the distribution phase. Russell 2000, sometimes an early barometer of things to come, had confirmed its improvement to a warning phase on Tuesday. Also important to note is the strength/weakness of the current warning phases in 3 out of the 4 of the indexes. All are in strong warning phases, therefore, an impressive comeback that needs more confirmation to be completely convincing.
S&P 500 (SPY) Accumulation Day in volume. 141.40 is a good point of resistance to cross. 140 crucial to hold with closer support now at 141 and 140.60.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 8 days up in a row after a shaky start. 82.00 is the overhead 50 DMA that is sloping down. Also, daily RSI a bit extended. However, always good to note the small caps as a harbinger.
Dow (DIA) Today's high touched the 200 DMA but it failed to clear it. Only a small index, but holds an important blue chip stock (IBM) that remains under a key weekly moving average. Has to get going or keeps the run suspect.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 65.50 the 200 DMA which it marginally cleared for an unconfirmed strong warning phase. That level has to hold. The overhead 50 DMA is declining which means a strong caveat is if the 200 DMA fails to hold, and the 50 crosses below the 200 for a death cross.
ETFs:
GLD 165.18 was last swing low from11/15 which held for now. 167.60 area new resistance.
SLV Shaky start but held the 50 DMA leaving an overhead gap to 32.83 which needs to be filled
XLF (Financials) Still in a warning phase and an interesting lagger for a group that has to dominate. Watching 15.80 level
IBB (Biotechnology) Made it to the fast moving average and popped. Until it clears the 50 DMA, not where the action is.
SMH (Semiconductors) A close this week above 32.00 encouraging.
XRT (Retail) My eyes were here big time this week and wrote as such. 64.00 overhead resistance. Like to see 63.25 hold
IYT (Transportation) Big bullish engulfing pattern. Getting to top of recent range. 90.50 support
IYR (Real Estate) Wedged between 63.25 and 62.50-the way it breaks should be followed (Wrote that Tuesday and still stands)
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Filled gap and turned. Over 60.60 good to go
For more detailed analysis join me, along with hundreds of other subscribers, at Mish's Market Minute and get my daily trade picks, trade alerts, training videos, and exclusive analysis tools. Sign up for Mish's Market Minute now and get a free 2 week trial!
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
