What Will April Showers Bring? $SPY $QQQ $IWM

April 15, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

The DIA was the only one who held onto the inside day on Friday. The rest (NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Russell 2000) closed nastily setting up this coming week as a make or break one. We saw the toppy formations, the oversold condition and ensuing bounce, and finally, the bear flag in QQQ led by the decline in AAPL (now oversold) and GOOG. Considering the slope of the 50 DMA is still positive in the S&P 500, we won't totally discount a rally, but gun to the head, looks like we're in for nasty weather.

S&P 500 (SPY) Back to an unconfirmed weak warning phase. I do not like when I see a gap lower like the one we had last Monday, and even with a bounce, cannot fill that gap.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Could not quite make the inside day to end the week, thereby leaving this index still vulnerable heading into Monday.

Dow (DIA) Inside day which means a good one to follow the way the range breaks down or up.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Even with the bear flag, the phase is still bullish let's not forget.

GLD Held the fast moving average but does look like the daily moving averages are headed to a death cross..

XLF (Financials) 15.12 is the 50 DMA ending the week and it did indeed hold with a positive slope. So again, anything is possible.

SMH (Semiconductors) Also an inside day and although it failed at the 50 DMA it closed pretty far up from the low tick last week, therefore, could be another key to what happens from here.

XRT (Retail) Inside day and right on the upward sloping 50 DMA. Really, retail is a huge key to next direction.

IYT (Transportation) Inside day under the 50 DMA after the huge run

IYR (Real Estate) Bumping up against the 50 DMA and another one that ended the week with an inside day.

OIH (Oil Services) Still long term trend negative. Ended with an inside day

XLE (Energy) Oversold weekly RSI, inside day and under the 200 DMA.

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