As You Claw The Thin Ice $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

---

From Tuesday's Daily: "With everything posting inside days, that makes Wednesday's trading range possibly the most decisive of the week." With now 3 substantial distribution days in volume (when the volume exceeds the volume from the day prior with a negative close), that is certainly fair warning that the hump day decisive action is for more downside. However, just to make the technical picture more interesting, NASDAQ closes below the 50 DMA, the Small Caps confirm the warning phase, and the Dow and S&P 500 remain in their bullish phases. Interest rates dropped, gold put in a second inside day to Monday's large trading range (not much of a bounce) and the earnings season is starting to cook.

S&P 500 (SPY) Although what first looked like a possible divorce from the small cap stocks, now looks more like just a trial separation. In other words, the divergence from small caps to larger institutional names remains, but eventually, even the strongest fall if the pressure is too great.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 88.79 the last swing low from February 26^th. But with this now in a warning phase, unless it gets a monster move back over 92.00, seller of rallies is more prudent

Dow (DIA) Holding up better than some, but unless it clears 146.50, it could get hit hard down to the 50 DMA at 143.10

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Unconfirmed phase change to warning.

ETFs:

GLD 2 inside days now with a meager bounce from Monday's sell off. But as this continues to drop, there are support levels-next one under 130 is 128.

XLF (Financials) Hung onto the 50 DMA by a thread. 17.77 most recent lows.. Without financials, the sentiment will remain negative. Over 18.20 would bring renewed life

IBB (Biotechnology)Best shot to carry the ball if crosses 168. Otherwise, can drop back to 156 area pretty easily

SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed return to warning phase. I still see this area as one for future growth. Looking to see if can hold 33.50 now.

XRT (Retail) Another area that has to participate since a direct measure of consumer confidence. The 50 DMA is just below 69.20

IYT (Transportation) 104.40 is recent support and if holds 105 level, could still be a buy.

IYR (Real Estate) FED says recovery fueled by housing sector. This better hold up over 70.50 or not very roseate

USO (US Oil Fund) Not seeing any signs yet of bottoming

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Still holding the slingshot low

XHB (Homebuilders) 28.00 key support

UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.60 is the weekly moving average

For more detailed analysis join me, along with hundreds of other subscribers, at Mish's Market Minute and get my daily trade picks, trade alerts, training videos, and exclusive analysis tools. Sign up for Mish's Market Minute now and get a free 2 week trial!