"Boxed In" $SPY $IWM $QQQ $DIA

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After the slingshot high left from May 22^nd that still has to be cleared to see a move beyond current levels, we are boxed in after Wednesday’s session near the lower end of the range established since then. One could almost draw a perfect rectangle around the price action from May 22^nd until today in the S&P 500. Therefore, there is no denying the key reversal pattern that was left after the market made new highs last week and if this week’s low is violated, there will most likely be no denying the market will retreat further, perhaps to the still strong upward sloping 50 simple moving average. Long Bonds bounced back a bit; but the shift seems to be to more skepticism concerning the Fed’s back and forth policy on the future of the quantitative easing. The market despises uncertainty. Until clarity emerges on whether rates will rise or stay artificially low (although already up a bit from the all-time lows) market could stay skittish. Then, once investors can count more readily on a higher US dollar and higher interest rates rather than lower US dollar and lower interest rates, new trends will emerge. For now, choppy conditions, tough going.

S&P 500 (SPY) 163.94 is the low end of this week’s range. Yet, through 166, new life

Russell 2000 (IWM) Percentagewise closed weakest, but chart formation, it is the middle of the boxed range from 5/22 high to Tuesday low and hovering around the fast moving average.

Dow (DIA) 155.14 number to clear. Through 154.40 will look better and under 153.48, expect more pressure

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 73.00 to 75.00 is the boxed range here for now

ETFs:

GLD Inside day and after a surge in miners, could see a move up to 138 should 134 level hold

XLF (Financials) Way outperformed the overall market and holding around the fast moving average for now.

IBB (Biotechnology) 179 support and needs to clear recent highs 187

SMH (Semiconductors) Closed just above the fast moving average. 38.00 good level to see hold but also want to see it clear recent highs 38.88 for another leg up. Best performer.

XRT (Retail) 77.00 held for now but now has to clear 78.00 to return confidence

IYT (Transportation) 116 is the number to clear as 113 the number to hold

IYR (Real Estate) Seems like the housing ETF is readying itself for higher rates. Well under the 50 DMA and back into the March trading range support

USO (US Oil Fund) Yo-yo up and down the major moving averages

OIH (Oil Services) Still friendly to this unless it fails 43.50

XLE (Energy) 81.00 has been a big area of support and now 84 area to clear

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) After Tuesday’s huge rally, today was an inside day.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Friendly here as long as 60.00 holds

UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.95 number to clear and 22.55 area to hold

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