February 23, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
From last Thursday's comments: "Equally prepare for a run back to 14,000 or another round of selling ahead of the weekend. A correction in a bull phase is that unpredictable." And so you have it. The Dow went out at 14,000. The market survived a stronger US dollar and evasive comments from the FED, although the writing does appear to be on the brick wall that low rates are unsustainable. This week begins with overbought conditions alleviated, nasty red candles at last week's high, but good (low volume) moves back over the fast moving averages. NASDAQ returned to its unconfirmed bull phase and many sectors shrugged off the correction handily.
S&P 500 (SPY) 151.90 next hurdle which if clears, will make the brick wall highs so last week!
Russell 2000 (IWM) 91.20 overhead resistance to clear and like the other indexes, the gap low from Friday a critical point to hold
Dow (DIA) Cleared the fast moving average. We can go back to looking at 140.36.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Technical signals work. Wrote last Thursday: "66.60 a pivotal area." Friday low 66.59. Provided Friday lows hold, back in bullish phase with overhead resistance at the fast moving average.
GLD Death cross with 2 inside days.
XLF (Financials) 17.50 turned out the nice round number for support.
IBB (Biotechnology) Great follow through after test of the 50 DMA. Now, a hold of 145.70 would be strong
SMH (Semiconductors): A move over 35.36 would be good, but ultimately has to clear 36.17
XRT (Retail) 67.75 is important resistance to clear. Weakest performing sector on Friday.
IYT (Transportation) Firmed Friday and still a good looking sector. However, does need to clear 107.16
IYR (Real Estate) Bull phase, but wouldn't be surprised to see some more work at these levels before next move is determined
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The last 14 trading days have all been within the range of the big trading range made on February 1st.
XHB (Homebuilders) The thing about weak warning phases is that they easily go back to bullish phases as did this group
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed phase change to accumulation.
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