September 9, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Low volume but positive end to a week that took the market out of the doldrums and into new 4 -year high territory. Other than the typical market corrections and digestions that occur, barring any unforeseen disasters, this rally has set the tone for the coming weeks and months. The only concern is that nobody has asked me if this is the top yet. That is a question I typically get on large rallies. To quote Rodney Dangerfield in Caddyshack-"They're all buying? Then sell, sell, sell!" I jest of course. But, seriously advise you to let the market tell you.
S&P 500 (SPY) 145 interim resistance and 143.09 then 142.21 interim support.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 84.66 2012 high. Other than overbought conditions, seems like just a number right now.
Dow (DIA) Still has to make good over the 2012 high 133.14 made in May. Otherwise, support at Friday's low to hold.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The high Thursday and Friday was 69.55 with NASDAQ ending the week with an inside day. 68.50 now support.
ETFs:
GLD Acted like QE3 is around the corner. Nosebleed RSIs now. Unless the FED actually does do something, my sensibility is that an inflated gold price is not a great sign to sustain confidence in the market.
XLF (Financials)16.01 is the 2012 high. Seems strange to have this and gold trading in tandem. Is that just me? 15.38 now the number to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) No sign of bursting bubble as of now.
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside and narrow range day. Above the 200 DMA-that's good. Semiconductors are still a huge potential growth area over the next several years. The monthly chart reflects a decade long of basing action.
XRT (Retail) Ended on new year highs.
IYT (Transportation) You know I always welcome semis and this group to the party-the one that goes on all night. Gorgeous wedge in place since March peak.
IYR (Real Estate) 72.59 is the 2008 high before the bubble burst. Looks like where this is heading to
USO (US Oil Fund) Oil has remained under the 200 DMA since May. Would like to see it stay beneath.
OIH (Oil Services) 41.75 recent high to clear. 40.45 the fast moving average support.
XLE (Energy) Cleared everything from April. 73.00 now support. 76.50 the 2012 high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) I am equally perplexed how the rates could be off the lows while the US dollar drops. On the lookout for which trend is accurate.
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