CHAOS-Insert Headline Here-BUY #GOLD

March 19, 2023

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


When we wrote How to Grow Your Wealth in 2023 we began with

Chaos

Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places

Could we have known at the time what headlines would emerge?

No. Yet what was obvious is that “From central banks to sovereign spending and borrowing to geopolitics to anti-globalism to ongoing raw material issues and food shortages to rising global debt-nothing is as it was.

Insert headline?

Here are a few:

Rates-While ECB raises .50-they also say they will cap at 4%

Banks--Regional Banks ETF looks lower still with SIVB filing Chapter 11

With $300 Billion added to balance sheet-this is the opposite of QT-and signals a further lack of control

Banks borrowed $165 billion from the FED-more than in 2008

More from the Outlook on the U.S. Dollar

“Most concerning is if dollar drops (just fell from 114 in September to under 104 this past week) then what?

Will the rate matter at all in the fight against inflation?”

And so, our top pick for 2023 was and still is gold.

This is the monthly chart of gold as seen through the ETF GLD.

It dates to pre-2011 when gold was rising after the 2008 crisis.

In August 2011 another huge headline hit the market:

S.& P. Downgrades Debt Rating of U.S. for the First Time

In August 2011, gold ran up to 184.82 before the political dance resolved and everyone played nice again.

Since, the thick horizontal line you see that stretches across the page to this month, GLD has not had a monthly close above those 2011 highs.

However, in August 2020 the GLD daily high was a short-lived pop to 194.45, yet later that month GLD closed much lower.

Technicians can see this chart in 2 ways.

First, as triple, or even quadruple tops around 184-185.

OR

A huge inverted 12-year head and shoulders bottom, which if the neckline clears, measures the gold move to around 260. Pretty much close to the 2023 call for gold to double or go to around $3000 an ounce.

You decide which side of the TA call you want to be on.

However, watch the dollar as your best indicator.

Under 104, inflation hits us in 2 ways. High cost of goods and lower purchasing power.

Of course, keep chaos in your analysis, assuming we have yet to see all the ripple effects of recent headlines (not to mention China, Russia, North Korea all persistently on the back burner).

Forget the Analysts, Follow the Math

MarketGauge’s GEMS Global Macro (Global Equities: Macro Sectors)

Current holdings based on MG’s proprietary indicators show GLD and gold miners GDX in the portfolio.

Additionally, the model holds NASDAQ QQQ and Semiconductors.

Fascinating to see how the quants will resolve going forward.

Finally, check out the interview with Dave Keller on The Final Bar. Lots of excellent information.

 

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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Mish in the Media - All clips here

Cheddar TV Closing Bell 03-17-23

The Final Bar Stockcharts TV 03-16-23

CMC Markets Modern Family 03-15-23

F.A.C.E. Forex Analytix with Dale Pinkert 03-14-23

TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides 03-13-23


Coming Up:

March 20th Madam Trader Podcast with Ashley Kyle Miller

March 22nd, The RoShowPod with Rosanna Prestia

March 24th Opening Bell with BNN Bloomberg

March 30th Your Daily Five StockchartsTV

March 31st Festival of Learning Real Vision “Portfolio Doctor”

April 24-26 Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

May 2-5 StockChartsTV Market Outlook

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ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY) 390 pivotal and 380 support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Still weak comparatively-170-180 range now

Dow (DIA) 310 support 324 resistance

Nasdaq (QQQ)  328 is the 23-month MA resistance-300 support

Regional banks (KRE) 44 support 50 resistance-still looks like lower in store

Semiconductors (SMH) 255.64 last month’s high. 248 nearest support

Transportation (IYT) Clutch hold 218 and needs to clear 224 weekly close

Biotechnology (IBB) Closed inside the prior week’s trading range

Retail (XRT) 60 big support and 64 big resistance

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