April 30, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
In the last minute of the trading session, S&P 500 traded at new 2013 highs and NASDAQ bounded above the 2012 high to make a new multi-year high! Russell 2000 and the Dow are still playing catch-up but it does seem inevitable that those indexes will catch up rather than the prior fear that they are harbingers of looming disaster. Bonds are the most fascinating watch right now as with tomorrow's FOMC release and given moderate growth in the economy, it is really possible and highly probable, the FED will relax on keeping rates low. Will the Bond Bubble come back with a vengeance? Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.
S&P 500 (SPY) Pretty and with no signs yet of any type of blow off. If anything, the launch pad is on countdown to zero.
Russell 2000 (IWM) The move over 94.00 a welcoming sign. 94.96 2012 high to clear and 92.50 critical underlying support
Dow (DIA) Finally cleared the 4/15 high. 146.50 support area to hold and 148.66 recent highs to clear
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Cleared massive resistance with now a projected next target of 74.00 should 70.00 hold
ETFs:
GLD If cannot clear 143.20, watch for chances of a decline, especially under today's low
XLF (Financials) 18.76 recent highs and 18.50 key support.
IBB (Biotechnology) Long term this is a continuing growth area. Short term, it looks a bit tired
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed over 37.00.
XRT (Retail) With consumer confidence in gear, the high 73.74 should clear provided it holds 72.80
IYT (Transportation) High daily RSI but good clearance of recent consolidation
IYR (Real Estate) New multi-year closing high again and not overbought
USO (US Oil Fund) Changed to a more negative phase-which could mean lower prices in store unless it gets back over 33.60
OIH (Oil Services) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish
XLE (Energy) Confirmed phase change
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Still see the possible key reversal here but now, have to wait until the FOMC is released
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Unless it clears the 50 DMA, a bit vulnerable here
XHB (Homebuilders) Possible short-term high in place. But, see it more as short-term with the moving averages intact
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