Dead Reckoning

February 6, 2014

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

The Dow closed red but after making a new low since the low made in mid-October, one possible indicator going into Thursday is that it reversed from that new low and closed in the top part of the intraday range.

This could be important if it gaps higher. Equally and in the direction of the negative phase, it could also mean nothing if cannot clear the 200 DMA.

Ahead of jobs report and with a lack of fresh news, expectation is for another choppy day filled with indecision. However, expectations may turn out meaningless.

Best shape is NASDAQ. Even though the phase is weak warning, the 50 DMA remains within reach should the market get happy again.

For now, all of the key sectors and groups fail to wow. This could be the calm before the storm. Question is which way does the wind blow?

Finally, Twitter reported after the close. At time of writing TWTR posted a 13% decline. Not a happy sight.

To see today’s interview with Keith and me hosted by Dale Pinkert at FXstreet, click here- https://www.ustream.tv/recorded/43479340?utm_campaign=ustre-am&utm_source=ustre-am&utm_medium=social

Russell 2000 (IWM) Perhaps through Wednesday’s high a temporary game changer, but still believe the key is the Dow.

Dow (DIA) The 200 DMA sits at 154.56.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 86.34 the 50 DMA far away but worth noting

XLF (Financials) 2 Inside days. Next time under 20.40 not pretty

SMH (Semiconductors) Almost looked good, but almost surviving the operation, well, you know. Subscribers: Like to see it clear today’s high

IBB (Biotechnology) The 50 DMA getting closer

XRT (Retail) Possible low put in-possible

IYR (Real Estate) 2 Inside days. Focus here with this pattern.

GLD Slightly green and lackluster continues to come to mind although the phase is getting a bit stronger

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs failed the 200 DMA-another puzzling piece of the puzzle

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